Alabama @ Florida Odds and Predictions: CBS Saturday Night College Football Picks

Week 5 Free College Football Picks and Spreads: Alabama Crimson Tide @ Florida Gators 2011 NCAA Football Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on CBS Saturday 10/1/11: Two of theSEC’s best will go head to head Saturday night when the third-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide travel toGainesvilleto play the 12th-ranked Florida Gators. Both teams are 4-0 heading into the matchup, and conference and national title hopes could be at stake for both sides in this one. Expect some hard-hitting, smash-mouth football from both sides all night as two of the best in the country at running the ball and stopping the run pit strength against strength. Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide is a 4-point favorite, but the Gators will be looking to ride the home crowd to a major upset.

Fans that like to see the ball put in the air and spread around the field are likely going to be disappointed.FloridaandAlabamarank first and second in theSECin terms of rushing yards per game, with both teams tallying more than 230 yards per contest. Not only that, both teams have a pair of running backs that can top 100 yards on any given day, including two of the most productive in the conference.

The question then becomes which team has the better two-headed monster at running back.Alabama’s Trent Richardson is likely the best back in the conversation as he currently ranks second in theSECin rushing yards and has already scored eight touchdowns. Meanwhile, his running mate Eddie Lacy is ripping off nearly nine yards per carry in a backup role. Fittingly, Lacy’s explosiveness is bested only byFlorida’s Jeff Demps, who is averaging close to 10 yards per carry. The Gators also feature Chris Rainey as their workhorse back, and in the end, onlyRichardson’s previous big game experience separates the Crimson Tide attack fromFlorida’s ground game.

Of course, neither team may be able to do much on the ground considering the defenses that both sides bring to the table.Alabamais third in the country in terms of rushing yards allowed, while the Gators are also in the top five. As far as shutting down high-powered offenses, the Crimson Tide has made the biggest statement to date, shutting down Bobby Petrino and the Arkansas Razorbacks. InAlabama’s 38-14 victory against Petrino’s team, the Razorbacks averaged just over a yard per carry. In other words, something has to give Saturday night. With both teams using inexperienced and unproven quarterbacks, whichever defense can take away the run will likely have several opportunities to make big plays.

An X-factor in the game could be the health ofAlabamalinebacker C.J. Mosley. He is one of the best all-around players at his position in the country, but he is questionable for Saturday’s meeting after suffering an elbow injury againstArkansaslast weekend. While the Crimson Tide certainly has plenty of other weapons on defense, Mosley was one of the playmakers of the unit. In a tight game, a few key tackles or deflected passes could be the difference between winning and losing.  

In the end, this game likely comes down to which team makes the fewest mistakes on offense.Florida’s John Brantley andAlabama’s A.J. McCarron don’t throw the ball often, but if they turn the ball over when they do, their team’s chances are going to take a serious hit.Alabama’s experienced offensive line and loaded defense should pay big dividends over the course of the night, and as good as the Crimson Tide defensive unit looked against the Razorbacks, it is hard to imagine the Gators establishing a ground game. Saban’s patented grind it out style will be at its best in this matchup. Look forRichardsonto get the Crimson Tide ahead, allowing the swarming and opportunistic defense to seal the victory.

Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide (-4) Covers the Spread

Free College Football Picks and NCAAF Predictions: Alabama -4 to cover the spread

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