2019 PAC 12 Championship Game Prediction: Oregon vs Utah Free Pick & Odds: For the first time in several years, the Pac-12 Championship Game carries some legitimate national title implications. The South Division champion Utah Utes (11-1) enter Friday’s night’s title game ranked fifth in the country and very much alive for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The 13th-ranked Oregon Ducks (10-2) are out of the playoff race, but the North Division champs can wrap up a spot in the Rose Bowl with a victory. Utah enters the matchup as a six-point favorite.
Oregon’s season got off to a rough start when the Ducks gave away a lead to the Auburn Tigers in the final minutes, but they rebounded and were back in position to challenge for a playoff spot until a loss to Arizona State in the final weeks. Quarterback Justin Herbert is the centerpiece of the offense, and he heads into Friday’s game with 31 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The defense has been solid for the most part, allowing just 15.8 points per game and ranking in the top 20 nationally in sacks.
The Utes have been led by the dynamic duo of quarterback Tyler Huntley and bruising back Zach Moss. Huntley ranks fifth in the country in QBR, completing 75.5 percent of his passes and tossing 16 touchdowns to just two interceptions. He has also added five rushing scores. Moss has rushed for more than 1,200 yards, scoring 16 total times and averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Defensively, the Utes boast one of the stingiest units in the country. Utah is allowing just 11.3 points and 241.6 yards per games. The Utes have one of the stingiest fronts around, holding opponents to just 56.3 rushing yards per game.
The Ducks Wins If:
If the Ducks are going to ruin Utah’s playoff chances, they need to give Herbert time to operate from the pocket, and Hebert needs to play up to his potential. At times, it is obvious why he is mentioned as a potential top-10 pick in the NFL Draft, but consistency remains an issue. If the best version of Herbert shows up Friday night, Oregon can put points on the board. Defensively, the Ducks need to stop the Utes from controlling the pace with Moss and their power running game. By putting Utah in obvious passing situations, it will limit Huntley’s opportunities to make big plays with both his arm and his legs. The Ducks need Herbert to step up, and they need to be bullies in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
The Utes Wins If:
For the Utes to keep their College Football Playoff dreams alive, they need pressure Herbert early and often. When he is locked in, Herbert can carve up any secondary in the country. When he is nervous in the pocket, he rushes throws and misfires frequently. When Utah has the ball, establishing Moss early needs to be the top priority. When Moss is rolling, it not only wears down opposing defenses, but it also opens up opportunities down the field for Huntley in the passing game. If Huntley and Moss both have strong games, the Ducks are going to be in for a long night.
Bottom Line:
Oregon may have the best pro prospect on the field in this one, but the Utes are the more complete team. The combination of the power of Moss and explosiveness of Huntley gives the Utah offense a level of versatility and balance that can give defenses nightmares. More importantly, the Utes are simply a stronger team defensively. Utah has allowed more than 17 points just twice all year, and they have the personnel to force Hebert into difficult throws all night long. Could Herbert turn in the performance of the year and put the Ducks over the top? Possibly, but I am betting on the balance of Utah.
Prediction: Utah Utes (-6) Cover the Spread
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