2019 Big 10 Championship Game Predictions – Wisconsin vs Ohio State Free Pick & Odds: In what is becoming a bit of a tradition, the top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0) are set to face the 12th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers (10-2) in the Big Ten Championship Game Saturday night. Ohio State probably has a spot in the College Football Playoff already locked up, but a victory would give the Buckeyes a shot at being the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. The Badgers, who enter the contest as 16.5-point underdogs, will be looking to spring the upset and guarantee themselves a spot in the Rose Bowl.
These two teams already faced off once this year, and the Buckeyes came away with an impressive 38-7 victory. Ohio State shut down Heisman hopeful Jonathan Taylor, holding the star running back to 52 yards on 20 carries. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins ran wild, piling up 163 rushing yards and two scores on 20 carries. Quarterback Justin Fields turned in an efficient performance for the Buckeyes, and defensive end Chase Young finished with four sacks and a couple of forced fumbles.
The dominance Ohio State showed on both sides of the ball in the victory of Wisconsin has been the theme for this team the entire year. The Buckeyes are averaging 49.9 points and 534.4 yards of offense per game while holding opponents to just 11.3 points and 232.3 yards per game. Fields has tossed 37 touchdowns compared to just one interception and has added 10 more scores on the ground. Dobbins is sitting on 1,657 rushing yards and 21 total scores. Despite missing a couple of games, Young leads the country with 16.5 sacks, and the Buckeyes rank second as a team with 49.0 overall.
Wisconsin doesn’t boast the offensive balance of the Buckeyes, but the Badgers are stout in the trenches. Taylor is the centerpiece of a power rushing attack, and he has rushed for 1,761 yards and accounted for 25 touchdowns this year. Defensively, Wisconsin is allowing just 14.6 points and 277.0 yards per game, and the Badgers rank fifth in the country in sacks.
The Badgers Win If:
For the Badgers to avenge their loss and pull off what would be one of the bigger upsets of the year, they have to hold Dobbins in check. Wisconsin has a great pass rush, and probably the only weakness the OSU offense has shown is Fields’ tendency to take sacks. However, the Badgers have to first force Fields into obvious passing situations in order to bring pressure, and that means slowing Dobbins on early downs. When the Badgers have the ball, they have to be willing to take some shots down the field and hope some 50-50 balls go their way. No, that’s not an ideal offensive philosophy, but if Wisconsin just lines up and pounds Taylor over and over again, we’ve seen the ugly results. Quarterback Jack Coan has to find a way to make a few plays and force the Buckeyes to respect the passing game a bit.
The Buckeyes Win If:
With a blowout win over the Badgers under their belts, the Buckeyes know they are the better team. Making sure they stay focused is probably the most important factor in this one, especially on offense. A couple of wasted possessions or worse yet, turnovers, that gives the Badgers some easy points are the quickest ways for the Buckeyes to make this game way more difficult than it needs to be. Defensively, Ohio State needs to once again prioritize shutting down Taylor and the running game, forcing Coan to prove he can make enough plays with his arm.
Bottom Line:
Believe it or not, these teams went to halftime with Ohio State only up 10-0 the first time around, and it was only 17-7 midway through the third quarter. Wisconsin’s defense is legit, but the problem is that the one-dimensional, run-heavy offense of the Badgers is going to have trouble moving the ball against Ohio State’s loaded defensive front. Wisconsin managed just 191 yards of offense and nine first downs, running 34 times for just 83 yards. The defense can’t do it all, not against an Ohio State team loaded with offensive weapons. Look for the Badgers to slowly wear down while the Buckeyes eventually pull away for another comfortable victory.
Prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes (-16.5) Cover the Spread
