2017 Orange Bowl Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wisconsin Badgers vs Miami Hurricanes: Two of the top defenses in the country will be on display when the sixth-ranked Wisconsin Badgers take on the 10th-ranked Miami Hurricanes in the Capital One Orange Bowl.
Both sides won their respective divisions and went into the final week of the season with a chance to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff, but both came up short. The Badgers started the year by winning 12 straight games before falling to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Meanwhile, the resurgent Hurricanes won their first 10 games before being upset by Pittsburgh and then falling to Clemson in the ACC title game.
In typical Wisconsin fashion, the Badgers boast a powerful ground game. Running back Jonathan Taylor has rushed for more than 1,800 yards in one of the most impressive freshman seasons. On the flip side, quarterback Alex Hornibrook has been inconsistent, throwing 21 touchdowns to 15 interceptions, but he has a dependable, go-to target in tight end Troy Fumagalli. Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s defense is allowing just 13.2 points per game and only 253.2 yards. In fact, the Badgers have allowed 17 points or less in 11 of their 13 games.
The Hurricanes have been carried by an opportunistic defense, and if you’ve watched much college football this year, you are already familiar with the turnover chain that comes out whenever a Miami player gets a takeaway. As a unit, the Hurricanes are allowing under 20 points per game. Offensively, Miami has been inconsistent at times. Quarterback Malik Rosier has been able to make some big plays, but the Hurricanes are averaging 29.5 points per game overall.
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2017 Orange Bowl Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wisconsin Badgers vs Miami Hurricanes
The Badgers Win If:
For the Badgers to win this game, they just need to stick to the blueprint they’ve used all season. Miami thrives on turnovers, and one of the best ways to keep the turnover chain on the sidelines is to control the clock with Taylor and the running game. Defensively, Wisconsin needs to eliminate big plays. Miami has had trouble generating consistent offense all year, and as long as the Badgers make the Hurricanes earn all their points, Miami isn’t likely to put many points on the board.
The Hurricanes Win If:
If the Hurricanes are going to cap their surprising season with an Orange Bowl win, they need to win the line of scrimmage on early downs. If Taylor is allowed to run wild all game, Miami’s speedy, opportunistic defense is going to wear down. If the Hurricanes can force Hornibrook into obvious passing situations, the turnover chain will likely make a couple of appearances and Miami will be in business. On the offensive side of the ball, Miami needs Rosier and running back Travis Homer to come up with some big plays and capitalize on any decent scoring chance. Miami isn’t an offensive juggernaut, so the Hurricanes need to take advantage of short fields and turnovers whenever possible.
Bottom Line:
At the end of the day, this is just isn’t a great matchup for the Hurricanes. Wisconsin should be able to keep control of the ball and wear down the Miami defense with its massive offensive line and the power running game of Taylor. On the flip side, I don’t expect Miami to be able to generate much offense against one of the stingiest defensive units in the country. The Hurricanes are already missing one of their top playmakers in running back Mark Walton, and Rosier has been struggling down the stretch, throwing for 210 yards or less in the last five games. Miami could generate absolutely zero offense against Clemson in the ACC title game, and while Wisconsin’s defense might not be on the same level, it is still a suffocating unit. Look for the Badgers to pull away in a physical, lower-scoring game.
Prediction: Wisconsin Badgers (-6.5) Cover the Spread
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