2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: Big Ten Championship Game Free Pick

2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: Big Ten Championship Game Free Pick: If you look at the rankings and ask most experts, the two best teams in the Big Ten are Ohio State and Michigan. However, neither team will be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game this weekend. Instead, the sixth-ranked Wisconsin Badgers and seventh-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions will face off for the conference crown. The Badgers will be playing in the title game for the fourth time since it was created in 2011, and on the flip side, Penn State’s appearance completes an impressive reclamation project for a program that was decimated by sanctions just a few years ago.

The game could also have much larger implications, and the winner could end up forcing their way in the College Football Playoff. Needless to say, this game could be the most impactful on the national title picture, and it could also be the most competitive of the Power Five conference title games. The Badgers are favored in this one, but they are only favored by 2.5 points.

2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: Big Ten Championship Game Free Pick

Penn State Wins If:

The running game will prove crucial for Penn State on both sides of the ball. On offense, the Nittany Lions need to establish running back Saquon Barkley early. Not only can Barkley help Penn State control the clock, but when he is effective, it opens up the play-action pass for quarterback Trace McSorley, who has proven he can hit big plays when they present themselves. Defensively, Penn State has to shut down Wisconsin running back Corey Clement and force the Badgers to beat them through the air. The Badgers have struggled to throw the ball all year, and if Wisconsin has to throw to win Saturday night, Penn State’s pass rush is going to be able to wreak havoc. If Penn State controls the line of scrimmage, it will control this game.

Wisconsin Wins If:

If Wisconsin is going to win this game, it needs a dominant performance from a defense that is allowing the third-fewest points per game in the country. The Badgers need to focus on shutting down Barkley, forcing McSorley into obvious passing down and distances. When the Badgers have the ball, they have to get Clement going early and establish a steady run game from start to finish. Wisconsin has had a shaky passing game all year, and the Badgers may be without quarterback Alex Hornibrook in this one. If they fall behind early, they don’t have the weapons to play catch-up or keep pace in a high-scoring game. Wisconsin needs to make this a grinding, low-scoring affair. If they do, the Badgers have the defense to come out on top.

Bottom Line:

Wisconsin doesn’t have a bad loss on its resume, losing one score games to both Ohio State and Michigan. However, Penn State has been a different team since upsetting Ohio State. The Nittany Lions have scored at least 39 points in every game since knocking off the Buckeyes, and McSorley in particular has stepped up his game. The Badgers’ defense is no joke, but their offense can be downright nonexistent at times. The Nittany Lions defensive front is one of the better units in the country, and they aren’t going to let Clement win this game by himself. I trust a Penn State offense firing on all cylinders to score some points more than I trust a pedestrian Wisconsin offense that could be without its best quarterback.  I don’t think it will a blowout, but the Nittany Lions simply have more ways to score in what will otherwise be a battle of physical defenses.

Prediction: Penn State Nittany Lions (+2.5) Cover the Spread