2015 College Football Bowl Picks: Florida State vs Houston Odds and Predictions – Free Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Picks 12/31/2015

2015 College Football Bowl Picks: Florida State vs. Houston Odds and Predictions – Free Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Picks 12/31/2015: The first of the New Year’s Six bowl games has finally arrived, and the No. 9 Florida State Seminoles and No. 18 Houston Cougars will kick things off Thursday in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl with the Seminoles favored by seven points.

The Seminoles were expected to decline a bit this year, but they survived the loss of several starters from last year’s playoff team and inconsistent quarterback play to finish 10-2. Explosive running back Dalvin Cook leads the offense, and a talented defensive unit enters the matchup ranked fifth in the country in scoring defense.

The Cougars flirted with an undefeated season before finishing 12-1 under first-year coach Tom Herman to secure the automatic bid to a New Year’s Six bowl as the highest-ranked Group of 5 team. Dual-threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. leads an offense that averages more than 40 points per game, and the defense has also been a top 20 unit in points allowed.

The Seminoles Win If:

For the Seminoles to win the game, they have to keep Ward in the pocket and prevent him from extending drives with legs. The Cougars lost the only game Ward didn’t start, and if Florida State can slow Ward, the Houston offense will sputter. On offense, the Seminoles have to establish Cook and the running game early in order to keep quarterback Sean Maguire out of long down and distances against an opportunistic Houston defense.

The Cougars Win If:

For Houston to win the game, the Cougars have to make sure Cook doesn’t beat them. Florida State’s passing game is shaky, and if Houston can force the Seminoles to have to throw the ball, either by creating third and longs or by jumping out to a nice lead, the Cougars are going to be in great shape. Offensively, Ward has to be the best player on the field for either side, using his scrambling ability to keep the Florida State defense off balance and create opportunities for an occasional big play. As incredible as Cook is running the ball, the Seminoles don’t want this game to turn into a fast-paced, high-scoring contest. If this game comes down to which quarterback can make more plays, Ward and the Cougars are going to be in business.

Bottom Line:

Containing Cook is easier said than done. In addition to averaging a ridiculous 7.9 yards per carry, he ran for 194 yards against top-ranked Clemson and 183 yards against a solid Florida defense. Meanwhile, Houston has allowed its share of points to better competition, allowing at least 30 points to Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis and Navy. Perhaps more importantly, Florida State’s stout secondary should be able to contain Houston’s receivers in one-on-one coverage, allowing the Seminoles to stack the box and focus on slowing down Ward. No, the Seminoles aren’t the juggernaut they were the last two seasons with Jameis Winston under center, but their defense is elite, and the edge they have in the trenches will eventually win out.

Prediction: Florida State Seminoles (-7) Cover the Spread

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