2014 Rose Bowl Picks: Stanford vs Michigan State Odds and Predictions – New Years Day Bowl Picks 1/1/2014

2014 Rose Bowl Picks: Stanford vs Michigan State Odds and Predictions – New Years Day Bowl Picks 1/1/2014:It will be a traditional Big Ten versus Pac-12 matchup when the fourth-ranked Michigan State Spartans (12-1, 8-0 Big Ten) face the fifth-ranked Stanford Cardinal (11-2, 7-2 Pac-12) in the Rose Bowl. While the Cardinal will be looking to win in Pasadena for the second consecutive year, the Spartans will be playing in their first-ever BCS bowl and first Rose Bowl in 25 years after knocking off Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Stanford is a 7-point favorite in the matchup.

A power ground game and nasty defense have fueled Stanford all year. Running back Tyler Gaffney has been a workhorse for a top-25 rushing attack, and he has 20 touchdowns and 1,618 yards heading into the bowl game. Defensively, the Cardinal are allowing the 10th-fewest points in the country, and they have registered the third-most sacks thanks to a talented and experienced front seven.

Michigan State has been winning with defense all year. The Spartans are allowing the fourth-fewest points in the country, and they have been the best in the nation at stopping the run. On the flip side, Michigan State has been an average team offensively, but quarterback Connor Cook has been efficient and running back Jeremy Langford has been a workhorse, rushing for 1,338 yards and 17 scores.

The Cardinal Win If:

For the Cardinal to win the game, they need to establish their power running game early. Not only will a steady diet of Gaffney slowly wear down the Michigan State defense, but it will allow Stanford to keep its own defense fresh. Defensively, Stanford needs to control the average Michigan State offense, winning the field position and getting off the field quickly. If the Cardinal are able to slowly build a lead and force Michigan State to turn to its passing game to catch up, things could get ugly as Stanford unleashes it pass rush.

The Spartans Win If:

If the Spartans are going to knock off Stanford, they are going to have to be able to move the ball on offense. Even a stout defense like Michigan State’s is going to wear down if the Cardinal dominate time of possession and pound them with Gaffney throughout the game. In addition, the Spartans need to keep Cook out of third and longs in order to prevent Stanford’s strong pass rush from being able to go into attack mode. If Michigan State can beat Stanford at its own game and control the clock and keep its own defense rested, the Spartans could come out on top.

Bottom Line:

While surprising losses to Utah and USC are proof that Stanford can take games off, it’s tough to deny how great the Cardinal are when they are focused, especially on defense. After all, Stanford is 7-0 against ranked opponents, shutting down the high-powered offense of Oregon once and Arizona State on two occasions. Needless to say, points could be tough to come by for a very average Spartans’ offense. Granted, Michigan State’s defense is the real deal, as well. However, the loss of middle linebacker Max Bullough to suspension is a tough blow for the Spartans as they face one of the biggest and most physical offensive lines in the country. It will be a hard-hitting battle, but Stanford has more muscle in the trenches and a track record of taking down ranked foes.

Prediction: Stanford Cardinal (-7) Cover the Spread

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