2014 Fiesta Bowl Picks: UCF vs Baylor Odds and Predictions – Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Picks 1/1/2014

2014 Fiesta Bowl Picks: UCF vs Baylor Odds and Predictions – Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Picks 1/1/2014: Two teams that will be making their BCS bowl debuts will meet when the 15th-ranked UCF Knights (11-1, 8-0 American) face the sixth-ranked Baylor Bears (11-1, 8-1 Big 12) in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Wednesday night. The Bears were in the national title conversation until a late loss to Oklahoma State, but they still managed to claim the Big 12 title. Meanwhile, UCF beat American Athletic Conference favorite Louisville early in the year and never looked back en route to the conference crown. Now, one program is set to make a major statement on a big stage, The Bears enter the matchup as a 17-point favorite.

Points have been easy to come by for Baylor this year, and the Bears averaged 53.3 points per game during the regular season to lead the country in scoring. Quarterback Bryce Petty leads the fifth-best passing attack, and he has thrown for 30 touchdowns and run for 11 more. Antwan Goodley has been his top target, hauling in 13 touchdowns. The Bears also have the 12th-best rushing offense led by Lache Seastrunk, Shock Linwood and Glasco Martin. Defensively, Baylor has been solid, and the Bears rank in the top 20 nationally in points allowed.

A solid passing attack and excellent defense have carried the Knights this year. Quarterback Blake Bortles has enjoyed a strong season, throwing for 3,280 yards and 22 scores for an offense than ranks in the top 40 nationally in scoring. On defense, UCF ranks 12th in the country in points allowed. On the season, the Knights are surrendering just 19.6 points per game

The Knights Win If: 

For the Knights to pull off the upset, Bortles and the offense have to have a near flawless performance. UCF can’t afford nay turnovers or short possessions if it wants to keep pace with Baylor’s high-powered offense. Defensively, the Knights at least have to take away the big plays from the Bears and make them work their way down the field. If the Knights can keep the pace reasonable and avoid falling too far behind the Bears, Bortles and company will have a fighting chance.

The Bears Win If:

A fast start on offense will put the Bears in the driver’s seat. Playing from ahead allows the Bears’ offense to utilize all of its weapons and remain unpredictable. An early lead will also force UCF to speed up its offense to try to keep pace. The Knights would prefer to rely on their defense to win the game, but if the Bears can turn the game into a high-scoring shootout, their superior firepower will make it next to impossible for UCF to keep pace.

Bottom Line:

Baylor’s offense hasn’t just been good this year, it has been incredible. With the exception of their lone loss to Oklahoma State, the Bears have been destroying opponents and have won every game by double digits. UCF on the other hand won four of its final five games by five points or less. Granted, the Knights deserve plenty of credit for taking care of business, but while they have been squeaking by American Athletic Conference teams, the Bears have been blowing out Big 12 opponents. Bortles is the real deal at QB for the Knights, but Petty is isn’t too bad in his own right. More importantly, Petty has a seemingly limitless arsenal of playmakers at his disposal. In the end, the Bears simply have too much speed and offensive firepower, and the Knights aren’t going to be able to keep pace.

Prediction: Baylor Bears (-17) Cover the Spread

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