2014 Cotton Bowl Picks: Oklahoma State vs Missouri Odds and Predictions – AT&T Cotton Bowl Preview 1/3/2014

2014 Cotton Bowl Picks: Oklahoma State vs Missouri Odds and Predictions – AT&T Cotton Bowl Preview 1/3/2014: Two teams that missed out on BCS bowls thanks to late season losses will meet when the 13th-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) face the eighth-ranked Missouri Tigers (11-2, 7-1 SEC) in the AT&T Cotton Bowl. The Cowboys lost to rival Oklahoma in their regular-season finale, handing the Big 12 title and Fiesta Bowl berth to Baylor. Meanwhile, Missouri fell to Auburn in the SEC title game, giving away both a possible shot at a national title and a Sugar Bowl bid in the process. Both teams will try to shake off the disappointment with a Cotton Bowl victory, and Oklahoma State is a 1-point favorite in the matchup.

Oklahoma State’s spread offense was once again one of the best in the country. The Cowboys finished the regular season with a top-30 passing attack, and their 39.8 points per game ranked 13th in the country. Clint Chelf established himself as the full-time starter midway through the year, finishing with 15 touchdowns. The Cowboys have four receivers on any given play, including slot star Josh Stewart. By comparison, Oklahoma State’s ground game has been modest, but the Cowboys have run the ball well in the red zone, tallying 33 total scores on the ground this year. Defensively, the Cowboys have been rock solid. Oklahoma State ranks 12th in the country in terms of points allowed, and the secondary has been one of the most opportunistic in the country. Led by cornerback Justin Gilbert, the Cowboys rank fourth in the nation with 20 interceptions.

An explosive offensive and play-making defense have fueled the Tigers’ resurgence this year. Despite missing four games with an injury, dual-threat QB James Franklin has accounted for more than 2,700 yards and 23 scores for an offense that ranks 39th in passing, 16th in rushing and 16th in scoring. Franklin’s top-two targets have been L’Damian Washington and Dorial Green-Beckham, who have combined for 1,683 yards and 22 scores. Running back Henry Josey has done a majority of the damage on the ground, tallying 1,074 yards and 13 scores. Defensively, Missouri ranks 29th in the country in points allowed. The Tigers also rank 12th in the country with 18 interceptions and 12th with 38.0 sacks. Defensive lineman Michael Sam has been one of the stars of the unit, leading the way with 10.5 sacks.

The Cowboys Win If:

If the Cowboys are going to win the game, Chelf has to play well. Oklahoma State’s loss to the Sooners was the team’s lone loss with Chelf as the starter, and it is no coincidence that it was also the only game that Chelf started and didn’t throw multiple touchdowns. A big performance by the Cowboys’ offense will also help the team’s defense stay rested and ready to defend all the speedy weapons Missouri brings to the table. In fact, the Cowboys can take a big step toward winning the game by jumping on top early and forcing the Tigers to become mainly a passing team. If Oklahoma State’s offense strikes early and forces Missouri to play catch-up rather than the other way around, the Cowboys can tame the Tigers.

The Tigers Win If:

Maintaining balance on offense will be crucial to Missouri’s success in this matchup. The Tigers are blessed with playmakers at all the skill positions, and the last thing they want to do is do the Cowboys any favors by becoming too one dimensional. If Missouri attacks Oklahoma State’s defense on the ground and through the air throughout the game, the Tigers should have no trouble scoring points. Defensively, Missouri needs to dominate the Oklahoma State offensive line and apply consistent pressure on Chelf. The Cowboys really don’t have a great ground attack to fall back on, and if the Tigers can pressure Chelf into making mistakes, they are going to have the upper hand in this matchup.

Bottom Line:

In many ways, this game is a matchup of similar teams. Both sides bring high-powered offenses to the table, and both have had issues with opponents that are able to be more physical in the trenches. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, the Tigers are the stronger of the two teams along the line of scrimmage. While Oklahoma State doesn’t really have a ground game capable of punishing the Tigers’ defensive line, Missouri has Franklin, Josey and Russell Hansbrough to attack a Cowboys run defense that was pummeled in the season finale in a loss to the Sooners. Perhaps more importantly, Missouri also has the stout pass rush needed to disrupt Chelf and the Cowboys’ passing attack. At the end of the day, the Tigers are just better equipped to handle Oklahoma State’s offense than the Cowboys are to handle Missouri’s attack. The Tigers defense will get after Chelf, and Franklin and company will take care of the rest.

Prediction: Missouri Tigers (+1) Cover the Spread

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