2014 BCS National Championship Picks: Auburn vs Florida State Odds and Predictions – Vizio BCS National Championship 1/6/2014

2014 BCS National Championship Picks: Auburn vs Florida State Odds and Predictions – Vizio BCS National Championship 1/6/2014: The 2013-14 college football season will come to a close Monday night when the top-ranked Florida State Seminoles (13-0, 8-0 ACC) face the second-ranked Auburn Tigers (12-1, 7-1 SEC) in the Vizio BCS National Championship game. The Seminoles rolled through their schedule en route to a spot in the title game with freshman quarterback Jameis Winston picking up the Heisman Trophy along the way. Meanwhile, Auburn survived several close calls and had help from a couple of miraculous plays to earn its spot in the national title game.

Auburn’s resurgence this season has been fueled by the best rushing attack in the country. Led by running back Tre Mason and dual-threat quarterback Nick Marshall, the Tigers are averaging 335.7 yards per game on the ground. Auburn’s dynamic duo has combined for 2,644 rushing yards and 33 scores with both players breaking the 1,000-yard barrier. When Auburn does go to the air, receiver Sammie Coates is usually the target. He has hauled in a team-high seven scores and is averaging 22.1 yards per catch for a passing attack that ranks outside the top 100 nationally. Defensively, the Tigers have been solid, ranking in the top 40 nationally in points allowed.

The Seminoles have been as dominant as their 13-0 record suggests. They are leading the country in scoring at 53.0 points per game, and they are also allowing the fewest points per game on defense. Winston threw a freshman-record 38 touchdowns for a top-15 passing attack with receivers Rashad Greene and Kelvin Benjamin both topping 900 yards and combining for 23 scores. Florida State also fielded a top-25 ground attack with Devonta Freeman, Karlos Williams and James Wilder Jr. combining for nearly 2,200 yards and 32 scores. In addition to allowing just 10.7 points per game, Florida State’s defense also led the country with 25 interceptions this year.

The Tigers Win If:

For the Tigers to win the game, they have to get their option attack rolling early and control the pace of the game. If Marshall has to become a passer, the Tigers are going to be in serious trouble. On the flip side, Auburn can put the pressure on the Seminoles if it can play from ahead and control the clock by consistently moving the ball on the ground. Not to mention the fact that being able to go on long, sustained drives will eventually wear down the Florida State defense while keeping the Tigers’ defense fresh. When it comes to stopping the FSU, the Tigers need to find a way to get some pressure on Winston. The freshman has been brilliant, but this will be the biggest stage of his young career, and he really hasn’t faced much on-field adversity thanks to the Seminoles’ dominant season. If the Tigers can jump out to a lead and put some heat on Winston, there is a chance they could rattle the frosh.

The Seminoles Win If:

A big performance by their juggernaut offense will go a long way to putting the Seminoles in the driver’s seat. If Florida State can build up any kind of substantial lead, Auburn will have to try to throw the ball in order to keep pace. If that happens, the Seminoles’ opportunistic secondary should have plenty of chances to make big plays against an Auburn QB that has basically been a glorified running back playing the QB spot. Defensively, the Seminoles need to sell out to stop Auburn’s option attack and force Marshall to become a pocket passer. Whether they do it by scoring points with their offense or with a strong performance on defense, the Seminoles win the game if they find a way to neutralize Auburn’s ground game.

Bottom Line:

In some ways, the Tigers seem like a team of destiny. From surviving a shootout against an injured Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M and the crazy Hail Mary against Georgia to the 109-yard missed field-goal return to knock off rival Alabama, Auburn has simply found ways to win against top competition. However, the Tigers have also shown a less-encouraging trend against its tougher opponents. In six games against ranked opponents, Auburn is allowing 34.3 points per game. Now, a defense that has shown to be average at best when tested has to deal with the best offense in the country. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ completely one-dimensional offense will have to try to score consistently against the nation’s stingiest defense. Granted, the competition that the Seminoles have faced in the ACC doesn’t stack up to the competition Auburn has faced in the SEC, but then again, Florida State has completely flattened the lesser competition and beat a pair of top-10 teams by a combined score of 92-28. At the end of the day, the Seminoles just have too many weapons on offense and are just too balanced on both sides of the ball. Auburn will give FSU a fight, but at some point, the Tigers are going to have to try to throw to keep pace. When that happens, the Seminoles will pull away.

Prediction: Florida State Seminoles (-8) Cover the Spread

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