2013 GoDaddy.com Bowl Picks: Kent St vs Arkansas St Odds and Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks

GoDaddy.com Bowl Odds and Picks: Kent St vs Arkansas St Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 1/6/13: Sandwiched between the first wave of BCS bowls and Monday’s national championship game is Sunday night’s GoDaddy.com Bowl. The 25th-ranked Kent State Golden Flashes (11-2, 8-0 MAC) will take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-3, 7-1 Sun Belt). After a 2-3 start, the Red Wolves closed the regular season with seven straight wins to claim the Sun Belt title. Meanwhile, the Golden Flashes were in the mix for a possible BCS bid until a loss to Northern Illinois in the MAC title game put the Huskies in the Orange Bowl instead. Of course, Kent State can’t be too disappointed considering the program will be making its first bowl appearance since 1972. In fact, the program has never won a bowl game in its history. If the Golden Flashes want to change that Sunday, they will have to do so as 3 ½-point underdogs.

For Kent State, a two-headed monster at the running back position was the heart of the team’s success this year. Dri Archer and Trayion Durham combined for 2,600 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns on the ground for the country’s 15th-best rushing attack, and they two split their numbers nearly down the middle. Archer rushed for 1,352 yards and 15 scores while Durham added 1,248 yards and 14 scores. That being said, Archer was the more explosive back, averaging 9.0 yards per carry. The passing game led by quarterback Spencer Keith was almost nonexistent, and in fact, Archer actually led the team in receiving with just over 500 yards. The Golden Flashes were adequate on defense during the year, ranking just inside the top 50 in points per game. However, the unit was burned for more than 40 points in both of Kent State’s losses.

A balanced, productive offense led by quarterback Ryan Aplin was the strength of Arkansas State this season. The senior is having by far the best year of his career, and he enters the bowl game with 23 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Aplin also added more than 400 yards on the ground for the third straight year for an offense that ranks 41st in passing, 21st in rushing and 22nd in scoring at 36.4 points per game. Running back David Oku has also provided plenty of help on the ground thus far, rushing for 15 touchdowns and more than 1,000 yards. Arkansas State is solid defensively, ranking inside the top 50 in scoring defense. However, the unit’s 25.4 points per game average was helped by a pair of shutouts.

The Golden Flashes Win If:

There is no mystery to what Kent State needs to do to win this game. The Golden Flashes need to establish their ground game in the early going and keep the game close heading into the fourth quarter. Yes, Archer and Durham of capable of breaking big runs, but Kent State is at its best when it is controlling the clock and wearing down an opponent’s defense with a steady diet of running plays. If the Golden Flashes fall too far behind late in the game and have to start throwing the ball, they aren’t going to beat a strong offensive team like Arkansas State. However, they are more than capable of knocking off the Red Wolves if their ground attack is putting together steady scoring drives throughout the game and controlling the pace.

The Red Wolves Win If:

Arkansas State’s best friend in this matchup is its offense. Having Aplin under center gives the Red Wolves the ability to hurt Kent State on the ground or through the air, and keeping the Golden Flashes’ defense off balance and guessing will go a long way to a big point total for Arkansas State. Shutting down Kent State’s rushing attack would be an even easier recipe for a victory, but that is easier said than done. However, the Red Wolves can eventually force the Golden Flashes to take to the air if they keep the pressure on them by piling up points. At the end of the day, Aplin gives Arkansas State the best quarterback and passing attack in this matchup by a wide margin, and if the Red Wolves force the Golden Flashes to have to throw the ball to keep pace, they are going to come away with the win.

Bottom Line:

Both teams have much stronger offenses than defense, and higher-scoring game is likely in the cards. With a more balanced offensive attack, a shootout favors Aplin and the Red Wolves. Arkansas State simply attacks defenses in more ways, giving it the more dynamic offense and the edge in this matchup. Take Kent State’s last outing against Northern Illinois in the MAC title game. Huskies’ QB Jordan Lynch was able to make plays with his arm and his legs, and while the Golden Flashes kept pace most of the game, they ultimately didn’t have enough offensive firepower to secure the victory. Aplin also brings dual-threat ability to the table for the Red Wolves, and the Arkansas State offense in general can beat Kent State on the ground or through the air. Both sides will score their share of points, but Aplin and company will score more and pick up the win.

Prediction: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-3 ½) Cover the Spread

Kent St vs Arkansas St Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 1/6/13
Line: Arkansas St -3.5
Total: Over/Under 63
Television: 9:00 PM EST on ESPN

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