2013 Free College Football Saturday Night Picks: Florida State @ Clemson Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAF Picks 10/19/2013

2013 Free College Football Saturday Night Picks: Florida State @ Clemson Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAF Picks 10/19/2013: A pair of top-five teams will square off in the biggest game of the weekend and one of the biggest games of the year when the fifth-ranked Florida State Seminoles (5-0, 3-0 ACC) face the third-ranked Clemson Tigers (6-0, 4-0 ACC). The winner will have control of the ACC Atlantic Division and an inside track to the conference title game, but more importantly, the winner will be in the thick of the national title conversation. In a battle between the last two ACC champs, the Seminoles are 3-point favorites on the road.

For the Seminoles, an explosive, balanced offense has fueled the strong start. Florida State ranks third in the country in points per game and ranks in the top 20 in both rushing and passing yards per game. Freshman quarterback Jameis Winston has been brilliant, throwing for 17 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Meanwhile, running backs Devonta Freeman and Karlos Williams have combined for nine scores, and both are averaging more than seven yards per carry. Of course, the Seminoles have been pretty stout on the defensive side of the ball, as well. The FSU defense enters Saturday’s matchup allowing the third-fewest points in the country.

Once again, Clemson’s success has been fueled by quarterback Tajh Boyd. The senior is one of the top dual-threat players at the position, and he enters Saturday’s matchup with 15 passing touchdowns and five rushing scores. Receiver Sammy Watkins has been his main target, and the Tigers’ offense currently ranks 10th in the country in passing and 18th in scoring at more than 40 points per game. Clemson’s defense has held its own, as well. The Tigers have allowed the ninth-fewest points in the country this season and have held five straight opponents to 14 points or less.

The Seminoles Win If:

If the Seminoles are going to go on the road and knock off Clemson, they have to establish their ground game early in order to support Winston. Yes, the freshman has been great, but asking him to carry the offensive load and outduel Boyd on the road is not a recipe for success. For his part, Winston needs to continue to under control and trust his talented supporting cast and not try to do too much because of the pressure that comes with such a big stage. On the defensive side of the ball, the Seminoles need to contain Boyd in the pocket in order to take away the big, explosive plays from the Tigers’ offensive attack. If the Florida State defense can limit the big plays for the Clemson offense while the FSU offense allows Winston to continue to play within his comfort zone, the Seminoles can pick up a big win on the road.

The Tigers Win If:

If the Tigers are going to get by the Seminoles, they have to pressure Winston early and often and put the freshman in as many difficult situations as possible. Winston has yet to play in a game of this magnitude and has yet to have to perform under constant duress. If Clemson can keep the heat on FSU’s star freshman, the Seminoles’ offense will suffer. When they have the ball, the Tigers’ offensive line needs to give Boyd time in the pocket. FSU has stout pass rush, but as long as Boyd has some time to operate, he has the weapons around him and the skills to put points on the board. If Boyd has time to work his magic on offense and the Clemson defense makes life miserable for Winston, the Tigers should be able defeat their division rival.

Bottom Line:

On paper, both teams bring high-powered offenses and stingy defenses in Saturday’s showdown. That being said, there is a good chance a shootout is on tap. After all, Clemson’s defense allowed 35 points to Georgia in the season opener while FSU’s unit surrendered 34 points to Boston College in the team’s biggest road test to date. With that in mind, the play of Winston likely becomes the deciding factor in the outcome of this one. The freshman has shown all the signs of being a superstar QB, but there is nothing that has encountered so far that will prepare him for the atmosphere he will face Saturday night against Clemson. In what should be a back-and-forth, high-scoring game between two talented teams, look for Boyd’s experience to shine through as he makes the one or two big clutch plays that tip scales in the Tigers’ favor.

Prediction: Clemson Tigers (+3) Cover the Spread

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