2013 Free College Football Picks: Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAF Picks 12/7/2013

2013 Free College Football Picks: Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAF Picks 12/7/2013: Although there is no longer a Big 12 title game, Saturday’s Bedlam matchup between the 17-th-ranked Oklahoma Sooners (9-2, 6-2 Big 12) and the sixth-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1, 7-1 Big 12) still has BCS implications. With a victory, the Cowboys can wrap up the conference crown and an automatic BCS bid. If the Sooners knock off their rival, the winner between Baylor and Texas will take the Big 12 title and a spot in a BCS bowl. There is plenty on the line in this rivalry game, and the Cowboys are 10-point favorites entering the matchup.

The 2013 season has been a transition year for the Sooners. After using a pass-happy attack the past several seasons, Oklahoma has relied on its experienced offensive line and ground game this season. Heading into Saturday’s matchup, the Sooners have a top-15 rushing attack, but they rank 100th in the country in passing. However, it is worth noting that Oklahoma recently installed Trevor Knight under enter in an attempt to jumpstart their passing game. Defensively, the Sooners have been solid, and they currently rank 21st in the country in scoring, allowing just 21.1 points per game.

Despite a bit of quarterback carousel, the Cowboys once again have one of the best offenses in the country. Clint Chelf is now the unquestioned starter for a unit that ranks 29th in the country in passing and 11th in scoring at 41.2 points per game. Oklahoma State has four legitimate options at the receiver position, and a stable of running backs have combined for 31 scores on the ground. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have defense has been more than holding its own this year. Entering Saturday’s game, Oklahoma State is allowing the 12th-fewest points in the country.

The Sooners Win If:

If the Sooners are going to pull off the upset, they have to win in the trenches and turn this game into a battle of physicality rather than a battle of offenses. Oklahoma has to establish its ground game early in order to control the pace of the game and keep the Cowboys’ high-scoring attack on the sideline. For his part, Knight has to remain to limit his mistakes in his first start in a big rivalry game. On the defensive side of the ball, the Sooners have to get consistent pressure on Chelf in order to disrupt Oklahoma State’s passing game. When the Cowboys do throw the ball, the Sooners have to make them work their way down the field rather than allowing huge chunks of yardage at a time.

The Cowboys Win If:

For the Cowboys to sew up a Pac-12 title, they need to get their offense rolling early. The Sooners no longer have a quick-strike passing offense, and if Oklahoma State can jump out to an early lead, it will force Oklahoma to abandon their power running game. Perhaps more importantly, building an early lead will force the inexperienced Knight to have to throw the ball to try to help the Sooners keep pace. Oklahoma State definitely has the more balanced, more potent offense in this matchup, and if they turn this game into a high-scoring shootout, the Sooners are going to have a tough time keeping pace.

Bottom Line:

While looking at common opponents can sometimes be misleading, it is definitely worth noting that Oklahoma’s two losses this season have come against Texas and Baylor by a combined score of 77-32. On the flip side, the Cowboys have defeated those two teams by a combined score of 87-30. The truth is that the Sooners have looked completely outclassed in their rivalry game against the Longhorns and again when they faced their toughest opponents to date in the Bears. Now, Oklahoma has to face a Cowboys’ bunch that is both a rival and one of the best teams in the country. Throw in the fact that the Sooners are breaking in a new quarterback while Oklahoma State has found stability under center and a suddenly-dependable defense, and Oklahoma is going to be in trouble in this one. The Sooners just don’t have enough firepower to keep pace with the Cowboys in this one.

Prediction: Oklahoma State Cowboys (-10) Cover the Spread

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