Cotton Bowl Odds and Picks: Oklahoma vs Texas A&M Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 1/4/13: As the 11th-ranked Oklahoma Sooners (10-2, 8-1 Big 12) prepare to take the field in Friday’s Cotton Bowl, it is somewhat fitting that Heisman winner Johnny Manziel and the ninth-ranked Texas A&M Aggies (10-2, 6-2 SEC) are going to be on the opposite sidelines. After all, the Sooners only two losses have come to Heisman runner-up Manti Te’o and Notre Dame and third-place finisher Collin Klein and Kansas State. Now, Oklahoma is either going to be an exclamation point on Manziel’s special season, or the Sooners are going to prolong a run of poor luck in bowl games for Heisman winners. In either case, the Sooners are three-point underdogs entering this matchup.
Not surprisingly, the Aggies’ high-powered offense revolved around its Heisman winner. Manziel’s enters the bowl game with more than 3,400 passing yards and 24 touchdowns to go along with more than 1,100 rushing yards and 19 more scores. The Texas A&M offense ranks fourth in the country in scoring at 44.8 points per game, and the Aggies rank in the top in both passing and rushing yards. Although Manziel and the offense get most of the accolades, the Texas A&M defense has been solid, as well. The unit currently ranks in the top 30 in the country in scoring, allowing just 22.5 points per game.
For Oklahoma, a high-flying passing attack carried the team once again. Quarterback Landry Jones is 11 yards away from 4,000 on the year, and he has 29 touchdowns for the country’s fourth-best passing offense and 10th-best scoring attack. Kenny Stills and Justin Brown have been Jones’ top targets while backup QB Blake Bell has been a red zone weapon, scoring 11 rushing touchdowns. The Sooners have been involved in their share of Big 12 shootouts this year, but overall, their defense has been solid. Oklahoma enters the bowl game allowing 24.2 points per game.
The Aggies Win If:
On the rare occasions that the Aggies’ offense has struggled, it has been mainly because Manziel wasn’t given the time in the pocket to make big plays. If the Texas A&M offensive line wins the battle in the trenches Friday, Manziel is going to be able to make big plays with both his arm and his legs and put plenty of points on the board. Defensively, Damontre Moore and the Aggies’ pass rush have to get pressure on Jones and disrupt the timing of Oklahoma’s passing game. This game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair, but if Manziel has time to work his magic and Moore and company come up with a few big hits on Jones, the Aggies will be able to outscore the Sooners and pick up the win.
The Sooners Win If:
When Oklahoma’s passing attack is rolling, it can put up points in bunches. If Jones and company are going to have another monster offensive game Friday, the Oklahoma offense line has to slow down Moore and the Aggies’ pass rush. Keeping the Texas A&M defense honest with the run will also help the cause, but in the end, Jones is going to have to have time to throw if the Sooners are going to have a shot. Defensively, Oklahoma has to make Manziel commit to quick decisions and become mainly a pocket passer. If he is allowed to extend plays and improvise outside of the pocket, he has shown time and time again that he will make something exiting happen. If the Sooners can make sure this game is decided by which QB can make the most throws, the superior pocket passing skills of Jones can deliver Oklahoma a win.
Bottom Line:
Ironically, both sides lost the two games they played this year when they failed to score more than 20 points. That stat probably won’t come into play Friday in what figures to be a very high-scoring game. On one hand, Oklahoma is definitely the more experienced team in the area, having already won high-scoring shootouts with Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. On the flip side, the Aggies have to more balanced offense and the higher scoring offense. More importantly, they have a player in Manziel that is literally a big play waiting to happen. Texas A&M also has the most disruptive defensive player in this matchup in Moore, and a great offensive line led by Luke Joeckel. With the best offensive player, the best defensive player and the best offensive lineman on their side, the Aggies will have make the one or two extra plays that tip the scales in their favor.
Prediction: Texas A&M Aggies (-3) Cover the Spread
Oklahoma vs Texas A&M Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 1/4/13
Line: Texas A&M -3
Total: Over/Under 72.5
Television: 8:00 PM EST on FOX
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