2013 College Football Picks: Wisconsin @ Ohio State Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/28/2013

2013 College Football Picks: Wisconsin @ Ohio State Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/28/2013: One of the biggest games on the Big Ten season is on tap for Saturday night when the 23-rd-ranked Wisconsin Badgers (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) take on the fourth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) in Columbus. The Buckeyes edged the Badgers last season in Madison in an overtime thriller, but with OSU eligible for postseason play again, this year’s matchup is even bigger. Not only is the game a rivalry in itself, but the winner will be in control of its own destiny in the Leaders Division. Not to mention the fact that the Buckeyes have legitimate national title aspirations. Of course, there is nothing the Badgers would like to do more than crush OSU’s national title hopes while bolstering their own conference title chances, but if Wisconsin is going to pull off the upset, it will have to do so as 7 ½-point underdogs.

Despite a coaching change and the loss of record-setting rusher Montee Ball, the Badgers are still the power running team that has appeared in the Rose Bowl in three straight seasons. In fact, Wisconsin currently owns the third-best rushing attack in the country, and the duo of Melvin Gordon and James White has already combined for more than 1,000 yards. Gordon has been particularly stout, and he enters Saturday’s game as the leading rusher in the country. Meanwhile, Joel Stave has been solid enough under center to keep defenses honest, and the Badgers currently own a top-25 offense. On the defensive side of the ball, Wisconsin has also been impressive, allowing 10 points or less in three of its four games. However, the unit did allow 32 points to Arizona State in the Badgers’ lone loss of the year, which raises legitimate concerns about how the defense will hold up against other top teams.

As predicted, Ohio State’s offense has been even stronger in Urban Meyer’s second year at the helm. The Buckeyes enter Saturday’s matchup with the fourth-best scoring attack and fifth-best ground game in the country. Shockingly, those numbers have been amassed with backup quarterback Kenny Guiton running the show in place of the injured Braxton Miller and backup running back Jordan Hall in the backfield in place of the suspended Carlos Hyde. Meanwhile, Miller is set to return against the Badgers, and his running ability will add yet another dimension to the offense. On the defensive side of the ball, OSU has been good but not great thus far. The secondary in particular looked shaky in a win against California, and the young unit seems to still be developing the chemistry to go with its talent. At least for now, the unit seems vulnerable to the occasional big play.

The Badgers Win If:

If the Badgers are going to go into Columbus and pull off the upset, establishing their ground game early is a must. Running the ball effectively will not only keep the high-powered OSU offense on the sidelines, but it will keep the Wisconsin defenders fresh for when they do have to try to stop Miller and company. Forcing the Buckeyes to load up to stop the run will also make life easier for Stave and open up the potential for some big plays for receiver Jared Abbrederis. It starts in the trenches for the Badgers, and if they dictate the pace of the game with Gordon and White instead of having to try to keep pace with the Buckeyes’ offense all night, they should be able to wear down, frustrate and upset OSU.

The Buckeyes Win If:

If the Buckeyes want to remain undefeated, a fast start on offense and big effort up front on defense are crucial. It is no secret that the Badgers are going to try to run the ball, but if Ohio State can at least slow down the Wisconsin ground game and force Stave to convert long third-down plays, containing the Badgers’ offense becomes a lot more manageable. Meanwhile, the OSU offense can help the cause by scoring early and forcing to Wisconsin to play from behind and turn more toward Stave and the passing game in order to catch up. At the end of the day, the Buckeyes should be in the driver’s seat if they turn the matchup into a high-scoring affair and force Stave to be the player that has to beat them.

Bottom Line:

While Michigan will always be the Buckeyes’ biggest rival, the Badgers have been a far bigger thorn in Ohio State’s side in recent years. Expect more of the same this weekend with Wisconsin rolling into the game with an excellent rushing attack and nothing to lose. On the flip side, the Buckeyes know that Saturday’s showdown is one of their two biggest tests of the season, and if dealing with the first real pressure-packed situation of the season wasn’t enough, an Ohio State offense that is rolling right now will be making a change at QB. Yes, Miller is more talented than Guiton, but it’s not like he will get a chance to ease himself back into action. Throw in the fact that the Buckeyes’ defense has yet to proof itself, and the Badgers should give OSU all it can handle in this one.

Prediction: Wisconsin Badgers (+7 ½) Cover the Spread 

Wisconsin @ Ohio State
Time: 8:00 PM EST
Line: Ohio State -7
Total: Over/Under 55

NSAwins.com is America’s premier sports betting website for 2013 College Football Expert Picks and College Football Betting Odds and Lines.