2013 College Football Picks: Washington @ Stanford Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAF Picks 10/5/2013

2013 College Football Picks: Washington @ Stanford Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAF Picks 10/5/2013: A big showdown in the Pac-12 North Division is on tap Saturday night when the 15th-ranked Washington Huskies (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12) head to Palo Alto to face the fifth-ranked Stanford Cardinal (4-0, 2-0 Pac-12). The battle for the division and the conference in general was supposed to be a two-horse race between Stanford and Oregon. However, the Huskies have a chance to prove they belong in the conversation by getting a huge road win this weekend. On the flip side, the Cardinal have a chance to pick up a statement win as they try to prove they belong in the national title conversation. Armed with home-field advantage, Stanford is a 10-point favorite in Saturday’s meeting.

The Huskies have been solid across the board in their strong start to the year. On the offensive side of the ball, Washington is averaging more than 560 yards per game and almost 40 points. Quarterback Keith Price has been excellent, connecting on nine touchdowns and completing 72.3 percent of his passes. Meanwhile, running back Bishop Sankey has been one of the best in the country, and he is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and has already topped 600 yards for the country’s 11th-best ground game. Defensively, the Huskies rank in the top five nationally in terms of points allowed, and the unit is giving up just 10.8 per game thus far.

For the Cardinal, a powerful ground and a solid defense have once again paved the way for a solid season. Running back Tyler Gaffney heads a Stanford rushing attack that is averaging more than 200 yards per game, and quarterback Kevin Hogan continues to keep defenses honest with his efficient play. In the receiving corps, Ty Montgomery has emerged as a potent deep threat. Overall, the Stanford offense rolls into Saturday’s game ranked in the top 25 nationally at 41.3 points per game. Defensively, the Cardinal haven’t been quite as stingy as they were last season, but they are allowing less than 20 points per game. The front seven is still as good as any in the country, but the secondary has experienced some growing pains as it breaks in new starters.

The Huskies Win If:

For the Huskies to pull off the upset, their defense needs to hold its own in the trenches and slow down Stanford’s vaunted power rushing attack. The Cardinal are as good as any team in the country when it comes to controlling the clock and wearing down opposing defenses. If the Huskies can hold their own, especially early, they have a chance to shift more of the pressure to Hogan and the passing attack and to get the Stanford offense out of its comfort zone. When the Huskies have the ball, maintaining balance will be crucial. Price has to be able to move the ball against the Stanford secondary, but if the Huskies can’t establish some sort of running game, the Cardinal are going to blitz Price to death. If Washington can create a decent rhythm on offense and avoid getting dominated physically by the Cardinal running game, Price is capable of making more plays than Hogan and leading the Huskies to a win.

The Cardinal Win If:

If Stanford is going to remain undefeated, the defense needs to dominate up front. If the Cardinal can slow down Sankey and get pressure on Price, they will bring the Washington offense to a crawl. On the offensive side of the ball, Stanford needs to hit the Huskies in the mouth early and often with its power ground game. The Cardinal don’t need big plays out of their rushing attack, but if they can at least move the ball consistently, they will wear down the Washington defense and open up big play opportunities for Hogan in the passing game. In the end, Stanford’s success boils down to controlling the line of scrimmage. If the Cardinal control the point of attack on both sides of the ball, the Huskies won’t be able to generate enough points or hold back the Stanford offense over the course of four quarters.

Bottom Line:

While Stanford’s ground game is as tough as they come, Washington’s defense has already shown it can hold its own in the trenches. The Huskies held Boise State running back Jay Ajayi to just 4.0 yards per carry in a 38-6 win, and they held last year’s rushing leader Ka’Deem Carey to just 4.4 yards per carry in a 31-13 win over Arizona. Perhaps more importantly, the talented Stanford defense just hasn’t found its top gear yet. Arizona State QB Taylor Kelly lit up the Cardinals secondary for almost 400 yards and Army ran for almost 300 yards. Washington brings a balanced offense to the table with Price and Sankey leading a unit with plenty of weapons. The Huskies should give the Cardinal all they can handle in this one and cover the spread, even if they don’t pull off the upset.

Prediction: Washington Huskies (+6) Cover the Spread

Washington @ Stanford
Time: 10:30 PM EST
Line: Stanford -8
Total: Over/Under 53

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