2013 College Football Picks: UCLA @ Nebraska Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAF Picks 9/16/2013

2013 College Football Picks: UCLA @ Nebraska Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAF Picks 9/16/2013: A pair of top-25 teams will meet in a non-conference clash when the 16th-ranked UCLA Bruins (1-0) head to Lincoln to face the 23rd-ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-0). While both teams are expected to contend in somewhat weaker conferences, the out-of-conference showdown is a big measuring stick for both sides. The game is also a rematch from last season when the Bruins jumpstarted a resurgent season with an upset of the Cornhuskers. This time around, Nebraska is a 4 ½-point favorite.

UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley had his coming out party in last season’s meeting, and with his dual-threat ability, he is the heart of the Bruins’ offense again this season. The Cornhuskers counter with a dual-threat QB of their own in Taylor Martinez, but the offense has other weapons, including running back Ameer Abdullah and receiver Kenny Bell. Overall, Hundley’s throwing ability gives UCLA more balance, but the Cornhuskers’ ground attack can be among the best in the country when it is firing on all cylinders. On the defensive side of the ball, Nebraska has issues in its front seven while UCLA has a young secondary. However, the Bruins also have the best individual playmaker on defense in the matchup in outside linebacker Anthony Barr.

The Bruins Win If:

UCLA used a balanced offensive attack to shred the Nebraska defense last year, and if the Bruins can establish a similar rhythm on offense this weekend, they should put up a ton of points. In particular, running back Jordon James needs to build of his impressive 155-yard performance in the opener in order to find a counterpunch to Hundley’s dual-threat ability. On the defensive end, the Barr and rest of the Bruins’ front seven needs to contain Martinez in the pocket and force the Cornhuskers into obvious passing situations. If UCLA can make the Nebraska offensive a one-dimensional, pass-first attack, the Cornhuskers lose their most dynamic element and become a lot easier to slow down. In the end, UCLA will win the game if it can score early and often and put the pressure on Nebraska’s offense to keep pace by mainly relying on the arm of Martinez to score points.

The Cornhuskers Win If:

If the Cornhuskers are going to avenge their loss from a year ago, their defense can’t afford to let the UCLA offense control the tempo the entire game. The Cornhuskers are at their best when they can run the ball early and often, and if they fall behind, Martinez and company will be forced to rely heavily on the pass. Nebraska isn’t going to win a shootout with the Bruins if Martinez has to out-throw Hundley, but if the Cornhuskers can dictate the pace with their ground game, they can get past UCLA.

Bottom Line:

Last year, Hundley and company tallied more than 650 yards of offense in their victory over the Cornhuskers with Hundley passing for more than 300 yards and Johnathan Franklin running for more than 200 yards. After giving up more than 200 rushing yards to Wyoming to open the year, Nebraska’s defense doesn’t appear to be any better this time around. Granted, playing at home should help their cause, but while UCLA has the potent ground attack needed to exploit the Cornhuskers’ biggest defensive weakness, the inconsistent passing ability of Martinez will make it difficult for Nebraska to take advantage of the Bruins’ suspect secondary. Expect both sides to score a decent amount of points, and expect both dual-threat QBs to make some big plays. However, UCLA’s offense is still the more complete unit, and it has the firepower to torch a shaky Nebraska defense for the second year in a row. The fact that UCLA is getting points in the matchup makes the Bruins the easy pick for bettors.

Prediction: UCLA Bruins (+4 ½) Cover the Spread 

UCLA @ Nebraska
Time: 12 PM EST on ABC
Line: Nebraska -3
Total: Over/Under 70

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