2013 College Football Picks: Texas @ Baylor Odds and Predictions – Free NCAA Football Picks 12/7/2013

2013 College Football Picks: Texas @ Baylor Odds and Predictions – Free NCAA Football Picks 12/7/2013: When the 25th-ranked Texas Longhorns (8-3, 7-1 Big 12) head to Waco this weekend to face the ninth-ranked Baylor Bears (10-1, 7-1 Big 12), there is a chance that only bragging rights will be on the line. There is also a chance that the Big 12 title and an automatic BCS bowl bid will be on the line if Oklahoma State loses its game earlier in the afternoon. Either way, the game is a top-25 matchup between in-state rivals, and the Bears are 15-point favorites.

For Texas, the lack of an elite starting quarterback has led to mediocre offense numbers. Current starter Case McCoy has thrown 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions for an offense that ranks outside the top 50 in passing yards and outside the top 40 in scoring. On the plus side, a rushing attack led by backs Johnathan Gray and Malcolm Brown has been strong at times, and receiver Mike Davis has hauled in eight touchdowns. Defensively, Texas has been inconsistent, ranking outside the top 50 in points allowed overall. However, the unit is solid up front and currently ranks in the top 10 nationally with 35.0 sacks.

The Bears roll into the matchup with the best offensive in the country. Not only are they scoring 55.4 points per game, but they Bears also rank fourth in the country in passing and 11th in rushing. Quarterback Bryce Petty has thrown for 28 scores and just two interceptions and has rushed for an additional 11 scores. Receivers Antawn Goodley and Devin Reese have been his main targets, and the duo has combined for more than 2,000 yards and 20 scores. On the ground, backs Lache Seastrunk and Shock Linwood have combined for 19 scores and more than 1,800 yards, and both players are averaging at least 7.0 yards per carry. Defensively, the Bears have struggled a bit recently, but overall, they rank 27th in the country in points allowed.

The Longhorns Win If:

For the Longhorns to pull off the upset, they have to establish their running game early and control the clock throughout the game. Brown and Gray are definitely Texas’ two best offensive weapons, and it is crucial that both players are given as many touches as possible. More importantly, Texas simply doesn’t have a strong enough passing attack to come from behind so staying close throughout the game is a must. Not to mention the fact that if Texas is controlling the pace with its rushing attack, Baylor’s high-octane offense is going to be in the sidelines. Defensively, the Longhorns’ pass rush has to get consistent pressure on Petty in order to disrupt the Bears’ offense and limit the big play opportunities.

The Bears Win If:

A strong start offensively will go a long way to putting the Bears in the driver’s seat in this one. If Baylor can jump out to an early lead, it will force Texas to abandon its rushing game and rely on its shaky passing game to try to stay in the game. By taking Texas’ ground game out of the equation, the Bears can also prevent the Longhorns from controlling the clock and wearing down their defense. Plain and simple, Baylor needs to turn this game into a fast-paced, high-scoring shootout. If this game becomes a battle of Petty versus McCoy, the Bears will cruise to a win.

Bottom Line:

Although Texas and Baylor have identical 7-1 records in conference and were both blown out by Oklahoma State, the Longhorns ugly losses to BYU and Ole Miss in non-conference matchups are tough to overlook, especially the 500-plus rushing yards the Longhorns surrendered to the Cougars. Aside from a 36-point outburst against rival Oklahoma, Texas hasn’t been able to score many points against tough competition and hasn’t been able to stop its tougher opponents from scoring. Now, the Longhorns have to try to contain a Baylor offense that leads the country in scoring and can deliver explosive plays on the ground and through the air. Sure, Texas will put together some scoring drives against a shaky Bears’ defense, but the Longhorns don’t have the firepower to keep pace with Baylor in what figures to be a higher scoring game.

Prediction: Baylor Bears (-15) Cover the Spread

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