2013 College Football Picks: SEC Title Game Odds and Predictions – Missouri vs Auburn Free Picks

2013 College Football Picks: SEC Title Game Odds and Predictions – Missouri vs Auburn Free Picks: The Southeastern Conference title and a BCS bowl bid will both be on the line Saturday when the fifth-ranked Missouri Tigers (11-1, 7-1 SEC) face the third-ranked Auburn Tigers (11-1, 7-1 SEC) in the SEC title game. If the stakes weren’t already high enough, the winner will also play for the national title if either Florida State or Ohio State loses in its conference title game. Shockingly, these two teams combined to go just 2-14 in conference play last year, but they went a combined 14-2 this season to win their respective divisions and earn a spot in the conference championship game. In this battle of top-five teams, Auburn is a two-point favorite.

Missouri has been one of the most balanced teams in the country all season. Despite being forced to use two quarterbacks, the Tigers rank in the top 15 in the country in scoring and the top 20 in rushing. Dual-threat QB James Franklin is back under center after missing time with an injury, and he is the engine that drives the offense. Meanwhile, speedy tailback Henry Josey has 13 scores and receivers Dorial Green-Beckham and L’DamianWashington have both caught 10 scores. On the defensive side of the ball, Missouri ranks in the top 15 nationally in fewest points allowed, and nose tackle Michael Sam leads a pass rush that has logged the fourth-most sacks in the country.

For Auburn, one of the most dynamic and prolific rushing attacks has fueled the team’s success this season. The Tigers rank fifth in the country in rushing yards and 18th in scoring entering Saturday’s game. Running back Tre Mason has been the workhorse of the attack, and he has 18 scores and more than 1,300 yards thus far. Meanwhile, dual-threat QB Nick Marshall has added more than 900 yards on the ground and 21 total scores. Defensively, Auburn has been respectable, ranking just outside the top 30 in points against, allowing 22.5 points per game.

The Missouri Tigers Win If:

If Missouri is going to win the game, preventing Auburn from marching up and down the field on the ground is a must. Not only will slowing down Auburn’s ground game prevent Missouri’s defense from becoming worn down over the course of the game, but it will allow Missouri to put Marshall in more passing situations and allow Sam and company to unleash their pass-rushing skills. On the offensive side of the ball, Missouri must maintain a balanced attack and utilize all its weapons in order to keep a good but not great Auburn defense guessing. If Missouri’s offense can consistently move the ball throughout the game while the defense can force Marshall to become a passer at times, Missouri should be in the driver’s seat.

The Auburn Tigers Win If:

It all starts with the ground game for Auburn. If Marshall and Mason get going early, everything else should fall in place for Auburn. Not only does being able to run the ball neutralize Missouri’s potent pass rush, but it will also allow Auburn to wear down Missouri’s defense and set up potential big play opportunities in the passing game. On the defensive side of the ball, Auburn needs to make the Missouri offense work for its points rather than allow Franklin, Josey and the team’s other weapons to connect on big plays.

Bottom Line:

While Auburn stole the headlines last weekend with its incredible victory over top-ranked Alabama, Missouri made an impressive statement of its own, holding Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M to just 21 points. That being said, Missouri’s lone loss of the year to South Carolina in double-overtime could be a preview of what to expect Saturday. After all, the Gamecocks aren’t flashy on offense. They simply line up and pound the ball and play physical in the trenches. Auburn uses a similar approach, punishing opponents with its relentless rushing attack. As great as Missouri has been on both sides of the ball this year, Auburn just ran the ball down the throat of the best defense in the country seemingly at will. That same ground game is coming for Missouri, and while Missouri certainly has the weapons on both sides of the ball to keep things close, Marshall and company should make sure Auburn is the last team standing.

Prediction: Auburn Tigers (-2) Cover the Spread

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