2013 College Football Picks: Pac-12 Title Game Odds and Predictions – Stanford vs Arizona St Free Picks

2013 College Football Picks: Pac-12 Title Game Odds and Predictions – Stanford vs Arizona St Free Picks: A spot in the Rose Bowl will be on line Saturday night when the 11th-ranked Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2, 8-1 Pac-12) face the seventh-ranked Stanford Cardinal (10-2, 7-2 Pac-12) in the Pac-12 title game. The game is a rematch of September meeting that Stanford won 42-28, but the stakes are much higher this time around. In addition, the Sun Devils haven’t lost a conference game since the defeat, and they are three-point favorites in Saturday.

Arizona State’s sudden resurgence has been fueled largely by the team’s powerful offense. Quarterback Taylor Kelly has thrown for well over 3,000 yards and has 35 total touchdowns for an offense that ranks in the top 25 in passing and eighth in the country in scoring 43.3 points per game. Meanwhile, running back Marion Grice has 13 scores on the ground and is just four yards short of 1,000 for the year, and receiver Jaelen strong has surpassed 1,000 yards. Defensively, the Sun Devils have been a mid-pack team, allowing 24.8 points a game.

For Stanford, a power ground game and stout defense has carried the team into the conference title game. Workhorse running back Tyler Gaffney has 17 touchdowns and almost 1,500 yards for a rushing attack that ranks 26th in the country. When the Cardinal do take to the air, receiver Ty Montgomery is usually the target, and he leads the team with 8 receiving scores and almost 900 yards. Defensively, Stanford ranks 13th in the country in terms of fewest points allowed and ranks in the top 10 in sacks. The strength of the unit is the front seven, including linebacker Trent Murphy, who currently leads the country with 13.0 sacks.

The Sun Devils Win If:

If the Sun Devils are going to win, they have to hold their own in the trenches on both sides of the ball. If Arizona State can give Kelly time to throw, he should be able to exploit a somewhat inexperienced Stanford secondary. On the flip side, the Sun Devils will likely struggle scoring points if the Cardinal pass rush has Kelly running for his life all game. Defensively, Arizona State has to slow down Stanford’s power ground game. Not only will this prevent the Cardinal from controlling the pace of the game, but it will force Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan to do most of the damage. If this game comes down to a battle of quarterbacks, Arizona State has to like its chances with Kelly.

The Cardinal Win If:

For the Cardinal to beat Arizona State for the second time this year, they have to control the pace of the game with their power rushing attack. Stanford isn’t built to win high-scoring shootouts, let alone shootouts against a top-10 Sun Devils’ offense. Not only will controlling the clock keep the score manageable, but it will also allow the Cardinal to keep their defense rested. For its part, Stanford’s defense has to pressure Kelly all night long. The Cardinal are vulnerable in the secondary, but if the pass rush is getting consistent pressure, Stanford’s only real weakness on defense will be matched. In the end, Stanford can win this game by turning it into a battle of physical play.

Bottom Line:

The first time these two teams met, Stanford jumped out to a big lead early on the strength of some big plays in the passing game and on special teams and eventually held on as Kelly and company made an attempt at a late rally. The early lead changed the way both teams played as Stanford could afford to play a little conservative on both sides of the ball, and a much different game is likely on tap for Saturday. That being said, it doesn’t mean the outcome is going to be any different. After all, the Cardinal have shown all year that while they may take games off as evidenced by losses to Utah and USC, they do show up for big games. Stanford is 6-0 against ranked opponents this year, including dominating showings against a top-10 UCLA team and third-ranked Oregon. When the Cardinal defense comes to play the unit is flat out nasty, and with a trip to the Rose Bowl on the line, Stanford should have all the motivation it needs. Kelly and company will connect on some big plays here and there, but Stanford’s ability to win the trenches will allow them to come out on top. Take the points and the Cardinal or take the Cardinal straight up in this one.

Prediction: Stanford Cardinal (+3) Cover the Spread

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