2013 College Football Picks: Oregon @ Stanford Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/7/2013

2013 College Football Picks: Oregon @ Stanford Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/7/2013: It doesn’t get much bigger than this. Thursday night, the third-ranked Oregon Ducks (8-0, 5-0 Pac-12) head to Palo Alto to face the fifth-ranked Stanford Cardinal (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12) in a game with far-reaching implications. The winner of the game will have control of the Pac-12 North Division, but more importantly, the winner will keep their championship hopes alive and well while the loser will essentially be eliminated from title contention. Not to mention the fact that Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota could take a huge step toward winning the Heisman Trophy with a big performance or fall out of the race with a bad outing. The stakes were similar last year when the Cardinal went to Eugene and stunned the top-ranked Ducks 17-14 in overtime. This time around, Oregon is a 10-point favorite on the road.

Even though Chip Kelly left to coach in the NFL, the Ducks high-powered offense hasn’t missed a beat. They rank second in the country in scoring, averaging 55.6 points per game. Meanwhile, the team’s rushing attack ranks second in the country and 20th in passing. Mariota has been the engineer of the attack, and he has accounted for nearly 2,800 yards from scrimmage and 29 total scores. Running back Byron Marshall, receiver Josh Huff and all-purpose back De’Anthony Thomas are just a few of the other speedy weapons the unit has at its disposal. In addition, the Oregon defense has been excellent, as well. The Ducks are allowing the seventh-fewest points in the country entering Thursday’s showdown, and the secondary in particular is one of the best in the business.

For Stanford, the recipe for success remains a powerful running game on offense and a physical defense. Running back Tyler Gaffney leads a rushing attack that is averaging just under 200 yards per game, and he enters Thursday’s game with 886 yards and 12 scores. Quarterback Kevin Hogan has provided solid balance to the offense, throwing for 13 touchdowns and only five interceptions, while receiver Ty Montgomery is a big-play option in the passing game and on special teams. On the defensive side of the ball, a loaded front seven, including an elite linebacking corps, have the Cardinal ranked in the top 20 nationally in points allowed.

The Ducks Win If:

A fast start on offense will go a long way to putting the Ducks in the driver’s seat in this matchup. Stanford wants the game to turn into a low-scoring defensive battle, but a few early scores by the Ducks will force the Cardinal to abandon their run-heavy offensive strategy in order to keep pace. Not only will a faster-paced game favor Oregon’s high-powered offense, but it will force Hogan to throw the ball against the Ducks’ excellent secondary. If Oregon’s offense can hit Stanford’s defense with an early assault, the Ducks can dictate the tempo and make it next to impossible for the Cardinal to keep pace.

The Cardinal Win If:

If Stanford is going to pull off the upset for the second year in a row, the Cardinal have to control the clock on offense with their defense has to slow down the Ducks’ rushing attack. If Stanford’s offense can consistently sustain drives, it will keep the Oregon offense on the sidelines and limit the big-play chances for the Ducks. It will also keep the Stanford defense well rested. When the Cardinal defense is on the field, the unit has to consistently get penetration and disrupt the Oregon rushing attack. More importantly, Stanford has to win on early downs to force obvious passing situations to limit how creative the Ducks offense can be. By controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and punishing the Ducks physically, the Cardinal can wear down and frustrate Oregon and grind out another win.

Bottom Line:

For much of the season, Stanford’s highly-touted defense has looked a bit mediocre, and the unit had a particularly poor performance in the team’s surprising loss to Utah. However, the loss to the Utes appears to have served as a wake-up call as Stanford has held back-to-back ranked opponents to 10 and 12 points, respectively. That being said, the Cardinal could still have trouble shutting down Oregon’s high-powered offense for the second year in row. Granted, the Ducks still do a bulk of their damage on the ground, but the strides Mariota has made as a passer gives the already-potent attack a new dynamic. Simply stuffing the run won’t be enough for Stanford to slow down the Ducks, and the Cardinal have actually had some issues shutting down opposing quarterbacks with a secondary that returns just one starter from last season. Don’t get me wrong, the Stanford defense will make Oregon work hard for its points, but thanks to Mariota, the Ducks have too much firepower and balance not to put points on the board, and Stanford just doesn’t have the offensive weaponry to keep pace.

Prediction: Oregon Ducks (-10) Cover the Spread

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