2013 College Football Picks: Oklahoma @ Notre Dame Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/28/2013

2013 College Football Picks: Oklahoma @ Notre Dame Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/28/2013: A pair of top-25 teams will meet in an out-of-conference matchup Saturday when the 14-th-ranked Oklahoma Sooners (3-0, 1-0 Big 12) head to South Bend to face the 22nd-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-1). Last year, the Fighting Irish went into Norman and smashed the Sooners en route to an appearance in the national title game, but this time around, both teams are breaking in new starters under center. With both sides trying to establish their identities, especially on offense, Saturday’s meeting is a good measuring stick game and a chance for one team to gain some momentum for the rest of the season. Heading into the matchup the Fighting Irish are 2 ½-point underdogs at home.

For the Sooners, replacing quarterback Landry Jones hasn’t been easy. Travis Knight got the first crack at the gig, but an injury has forced Blake Bell into the role. Bell has mainly been a red zone weapon in his career at Oklahoma, but he did throw for four scores in his first start last weekend against Tulsa. Overall, the Sooners have relied heavily on the run, and they enter the game ranked 16th in the country in rushing yards. Bell and backs Brennan Clay and Damien Williams have done most of the damage, but the Sooners offense as a whole didn’t exactly looked imposing in a 16-7 win over West Virginia. Along with their rushing attack, the Sooners have been thriving thanks to a defense that is allowing just 9.0 points per game.

After winning with defense and a power running attack last season, the Fighting Irish have been throwing the ball more in 2013. Quarterback Tommy Rees has held his own in place of the suspended Everett Golson, throwing for more than 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns. Meanwhile, receivers DaVaris Daniels and T.J. Jones have both topped 300 yards on the year. On the flip side, Notre Dame’s rushing attack has struggled, and despite having a very talented front seven, the defense is allowing twice as many points per game this year. The unit looked particularly vulnerable in a 41-30 loss to Michigan.

The Sooners Win If:

If the Sooners are going to avenge their loss to Notre Dame from a year ago, they have to be play-mistake free football and finish off drives on offense. Establishing their ground game will go a long way to accomplishing both goals, and it will also keep Bell from having to throw the ball in obvious passing situations. On the defensive side of the ball, Oklahoma has to make sure that the Fighting Irish continue to struggle running the football. From there, the Sooners need to pressure Rees and force him into making a few mistakes. If Oklahoma can wear down the Notre Dame defense and make the Fighting Irish offense one dimensional, the Sooners should emerge with the win.

The Fighting Irish Win If:

It all starts on the defensive side of the ball for the Fighting Irish. If the Sooners are able to run the ball at will Saturday, Notre Dame is going to be in trouble. However, the Fighting Irish can grab the upper hand if they are able to contain Bell in the pocket at force him to beat them with his arm alone. On the offensive side of the ball, Notre Dame can’t afford to turn the ball over and give the Sooners a short field to work with. Meanwhile, Rees has to hit a few big plays in the passing game to loosen up the Oklahoma defense. In the end, the Fighting Irish can win the game if Rees play well and the defense turns the Sooners into a pass-first team.

Bottom Line:

At the end of the day, this game will likely be decided by which team can force the other out of its comfort zone. On one hand, the performance by Michigan’s Devin Gardner against the Fighting Irish defense would seem to bode well for another dual-threat QB like Bell. However, Bell isn’t nearly the passer that Gardner is, and Notre Dame still has the personnel up front to at least slow down the Sooners’ ground game. Not to mention the fact that Bell is still an unproven passer, and he will be making his first road start in the same game the Sooners face their first real test of the year. Playing at home, the Notre Dame defense will force Bell to play from the pocket, and Rees and the Fighting Irish offense will be able to make enough plays to capitalize.

Prediction: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+2 ½) Cover the Spread 

Oklahoma @ Notre Dame
Time: 3:30 PM EST
Line: Oklahoma -3.5
Total: Over/Under 50.5

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