2013 College Football Picks: Oklahoma @ Baylor Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/7/2013

2013 College Football Picks: Oklahoma @ Baylor Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/7/2013: Conference and national title hopes will both be on the line Thursday night when the 10th-ranked Oklahoma Sooners (7-1, 4-1 Big 12) head to Waco to face the sixth-ranked Baylor Bears (7-0, 4-0 Big 12). For the Bears, a win will keep them in the thick of the national title conversation and in control of their own destiny as far as the Big 12 title is concerned. The game could also be a chance for Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty and running back Lache Seastrunk to jumpstart serious Heisman Trophy campaigns. Meanwhile, Oklahoma can work its way back into both the conference and national title picture knocking off the undefeated Bears. Last year, the Sooners won a 42-34 shootout in Norman, but this time around, Baylor is a 15-point favorite at home.

The high-scoring, pass-happy Oklahoma is a thing of the past in 2013. The Sooners have been winning games with a strong running attack and stingy defense this year, and entering Thursday’s matchup, they rank in the top 20 nationally in rushing and in the top 15 in fewest points allowed. Running backs Brennan Clay and Damien Williams head the powerful ground game, but an experienced offensive line and the dual-threat ability of bulldozing quarterback Blake Bell certainly help the cause.

For the Bears, an unbelievable offense has been the catalyst for their undefeated start. Entering Thursday’s game Baylor is scoring a FBS-leading 63.9 points per game. The Bears also lead the country in passing yards and rank seventh in rushing, and overall, they are averaging more than 700 yards of offense per game. Petty has been excellent under center, throwing 18 touchdowns and just one interception and leading the country in QB rating. His top two targets are receivers Antwan Goodley and Tevin Reese. Both players have scored eight touchdowns and have more than 800 receiving yards thus far. In addition, both are averaging well over 20 yards per catch. Meanwhile, running back Seastrunk has rushed for 869 yards and is averaging 9.1 yards per carry. Baylor’s defense has been stout, as well, and the Bears are currently allowing the sixth-fewest points in the country.

The Sooners Win If:

If the Sooners are going to win the game, they have to be more the more physical team on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace with Baylor in a shootout, but if the Sooners run the ball effectively and can dictate the tempo while scoring consistently, they can tip the scales in their favor. Equally as important will be the play of Bell, who can’t afford to struggle from the pocket if Oklahoma is going to win. On the defensive side of the ball, the Sooners have to make the Bears’ offense work for its points rather than allow Baylor to churn out big play after big play. If Oklahoma gets a solid performance from Bell under center and controls the pace of the game to keep the score within reason, the Sooners can keep pace with the Bears and pull off the upset.

The Bears Win If:

For the Bears to stay undefeated, they have to hold their own in the trenches against an Oklahoma team that is going to try to be as physical as possible. Baylor needs to be particularly effective at slowing down the Sooners’ power running game in order to force Bell into becoming a pocket passer and to prevent Oklahoma from bleeding the clock. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bears need to establish their up-tempo pace early on in order to wear down the Oklahoma defense and force the Sooners to speed up their own offensive strategy in order to keep pace. Baylor has the firepower to win high-scoring shootouts played at track-meet speeds, and if the Bears make sure Thursday’s game becomes just that, they will overwhelm the Sooners.

Bottom Line:

As dominant as the Bears have been this season, the fact remains that they really haven’t been tested. Baylor’s only real matchup against a team with a power running game and solid defense to date was a road contest against Kansas State, and the Bears allowed more than 300 rushing yards to the Wildcats and won by just 10 points. The Sooners bring a better offensive line, tougher defense and deeper stable of running backs to the table than the Wildcats did, and Oklahoma has the pieces in place to play physical on both sides of the ball. In the end, the Sooners might not have the firepower to pull off the upset on the road, but regardless, Oklahoma should be able to beat up the Bears on both sides of the ball and hang within a couple of touchdowns.

Prediction: Oklahoma Sooners (+15) Cover the Spread

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