2013 College Football Picks: Ohio State @ Michigan Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/30/2013

2013 College Football Picks: Ohio State @ Michigan Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/30/2013: One of the most-storied rivalries in college football will write another chapter this weekend when the third-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0, 7-0 Big Ten) head to Ann Arbor to face the Michigan Wolverines (7-4, 3-4 Big Ten). With Michigan currently unranked and out of the Big Ten race, Saturday’s meeting is definitely not the biggest matchup between these two programs. However, the Buckeyes are in the thick of the national title hunt, and the Wolverines will certainly be looking to salvage an otherwise-disappointing season by knocking off their undefeated rival and ruining their championship hopes. Both sides have plenty to play for, but Ohio State is a hefty 16-point favorite.

Ohio State has rolled through the Big Ten this season thanks to the high-powered spread attack of coach Urban Meyer. The Buckeyes currently rank third in the country and scoring and sixth in rushing, and while dual-threat quarterback Braxton Miller has made plenty of big plays, bruising running back Carlos Hyde has been the workhorse of the offense and has 13 touchdowns and more than 1,000 yards in just eight games. Ohio State has been stout on defense, as well. The Buckeyes are allowing the eighth-fewest points, and while the secondary has given up some big plays, the front seven is loaded with playmakers like Noah Spence and Ryan Shazier.

For Michigan, inconsistent play on both sides of the ball has led to the team’s 7-4 record. Running the ball has been a particular struggle, and the Wolverines currently rank 100th in the country in rushing with lead back Fitzgerald Toussaint managing just 3.4 yards per carry. Granted, dual-threat QB Devin Gardner has made some explosive plays, but he had issues with turnovers and is completing just 58.7 percent of his passes. Michigan hasn’t been terrible defensively, but the Wolverines rank just 53rd nationally in points allowed so the unit isn’t elite either.

The Buckeyes Win If:

If the Buckeyes are going to stay undefeated and knock off their rival, they need to maintain consistent focus and effort in what is sure to be a hostile environment. One bad drive or turnover by the Ohio State offense or one big play allowed by the defense is all it will take to get the home crowd roaring, and the last thing the Buckeyes want to do is give the Wolverines any more motivation or energy to feed off of. Other than that, Ohio State just needs to focus on making Gardner a pocket passer and maintaining balance between the power running of Hyde and explosive playmaking of Miller in order to control the game. At the end of the day, the Buckeyes have more weapons and more talent, and they just need to bring their A game to win this one.

The Wolverines Win If:

For the Wolverines to pull off the upset, they will have to find a way to establish some type of consistency on offense. Michigan can’t afford to put itself in third and longs on a routine basis and allow the Buckeyes to unleash their pass rush on Gardner.  Granted, hitting a few big plays will certainly help the cause, but being able to move the ball on a regular basis will go a long way to preventing the up-tempo Buckeyes’ offense from setting the pace. On defense, the Wolverines’ top priority has to be slowing down Hyde in order to make Ohio State a little more predictable. When Hyde is gaining five-plus yards a carry, the Buckeyes’ playbook is too vast and dangerous for a suspect Michigan defense to handle.

Bottom Line:

After looking stout early in the year, the Michigan offense has fallen into disarray. From a six-point performance in a loss to Michigan State and a 13-point performance in a loss to Nebraska to managing just nine points in regulation in a triple-overtime win against Northwestern, the Michigan offense just isn’t getting the job done. Specifically, the wolverines simply haven’t been able to run the ball, and that isn’t likely to change against an Ohio State defense that has already held the potent ground attack of Wisconsin in check. Meanwhile, Gardner has shown no signs of being able to lead Michigan past top competition with his arm alone. On the other hand, all the pressure in this matchup is on the Buckeyes, and the Big House will certainly be raucous. Not to mention the fact that Ohio State has had trouble putting away and blowing out teams at times. Yes, the Buckeyes are clearly the better team, and Michigan probably doesn’t have the offensive firepower to pull off the upset. That being said, 16 points is a lot in such a big rivalry, and the Buckeyes tendency to take their foot off the gas pedal will likely make this one tighter than it should be.

Prediction: Michigan Wolverines (+16) Cover the Spread

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