2013 College Football Picks: Mountain West Title Game Odds and Predictions – Utah St vs Fresno St Free Picks

2013 College Football Picks: Mountain West Title Game Odds and Predictions – Utah St vs Fresno St Free Picks: It will be the ultimate battle of strength versus strength when the Utah State Aggies (8-4, 7-1 MWC) meet the 23rd-ranked Fresno State Bulldogs (10-1, 7-1 MWC) in the Mountain West title game Saturday night. The Aggies roll into the matchup with one of the 10-stingiest defenses in the country, and the Bulldogs bring one of the five-best scoring offenses to the fight. Needless to say, something has to give in this matchup, and the Bulldogs are currently 3 ½-point favorites.

Heading into Saturday’s conference title game, the Aggies are allowing the seventh-fewest points in the country. In addition to giving up just 16.8 points per game on average, Utah State has held six opponents to 12 points or less. Offensively, the Aggies have been inconsistent. An injury to starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton has been part of the problem, and while Keeton threw 18 scores in five games, his replacement Darell Garretson has thrown just nine touchdowns in his six starts. In wake of Keeton’s injury, running back Joey DeMartino has been the Aggies’ best offensive weapon. He has run for 1,024 yards on 5.7 yards per carry and has scored 12 times.

For Fresno State, a powerful passing attack led by quarterback Derek Carr has fueled the fourth-best scoring offense in the country. The Bulldogs actually rank first in the country in passing yards, and Carr leads the nation with 4,462 passing yards and 45 touchdowns. Receivers Josh Harper and Davante Adams have both topped 1,000 yards, and Adams leads the country with 22 receiving touchdowns and ranks second in both catches and yards. On the flip side, Fresno State’s defense has struggled, allowing more than 30 points per game on average and allowing more than 50 points on two separate occasions.

The Aggies Win If:

Controlling the clock and the pace of the game is going to be a must for the Aggies if they want to knock off the Bulldogs. Utah State doesn’t have the offensive firepower to win a shootout against Fresno State, but if the Aggies can at least get DeMartino established early and engineer some long drives on offense, they can give their defense a fighting chance.  Defensively, Utah State has to make the Bulldogs work for their points rather than allow Carr to connect on big play after big play. At the end of the day, the Aggies have a chance if they can control the clock, keep the score manageable and allow their defense to dictate the tempo.

The Bulldogs Win If:

If the Bulldogs can get their offense rolling early, they are going to be able to control the game. Building an early lead will not only force the Aggies to play at a faster pace, but it will put more pressure on their inexperienced QB Garretson to try to keep Utah State in the game. Defensively, the Bulldogs need to focus on slowing down Utah State’s ground game, especially early on. The easiest recipe for a victory for Fresno State involves creating fast-paced, high-scoring game. If the Bulldogs make sure this game becomes a shootout between Carr and Garretson, Fresno State’s high-powered offense will rule the night.

Bottom Line:

As their 62-52 loss to San Jose State suggests, the Bulldogs can have their issues on the defensive side of the ball. That being said, Fresno State’s offense has scored at least 35 points in every game this season and has scored more than 40 points in nine of the team’s 11 games. In other words, Carr and company are going to put points on the board, even against a stout Utah State defense. With that in mind, it is hard to imagine Garretson being able to keep pace with Carr, especially since Carr has thrown nearly as many touchdowns in one game as Garretson has all season. At the end of the day, the Bulldogs’ massive edge in offensive firepower will outweigh their defensive problems against a mediocre Utah State offense.

Prediction: Fresno State Bulldogs (-3 ½) Cover the Spread

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