2013 College Football Picks: Missouri @ Georgia Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAF Picks 10/12/2013

2013 College Football Picks: Missouri @ Georgia Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAF Picks 10/12/2013: A huge battle in the SEC East is on tap Saturday when the 25th-ranked Missouri Tigers (5-0, 1-0 SEC) head to Athens to face the seventh-ranked Georgia Bulldogs (4-1, 3-0 SEC). The winner will still control its own destiny within the division, while the loser will essentially be two games back. For the upstart the Tigers, the game is the first of three consecutive against ranked opponents. On the flip side, the game will already be Georgia’s fourth matchup against a ranked foe. In either case, Saturday’s showdown could be the most important game to date for both sides, and the Bulldogs are 8-point favorites at home.

Last year, Missouri struggled in its first season in the SEC, posting a 5-7 record. However, injuries played a part in the team’s issues, and the healthy Tigers have been a lot more formidable. Dual-threat quarterback James Franklin has been particularly deadly, and he has already combined for almost 1,700 yards and 15 scores. The running back combo of Henry Josey and Russell Hansbrough has also been potent while former No. 1 recruit Dorial Green-Beckham has emerged as the team’s top receiver. Overall, the Tigers rank 15th in the country in rushing and eighth in scoring. Defensively, Missouri has been solid but not spectacular, allowing 21.4 points per game.

For Georgia, quarterback Aaron Murray and the offense have been shouldering a majority of the load thus far, and the Bulldogs rank in the top 20 nationally in passing and in the top 25 in scoring entering Saturday’s game. Murray has thrown for 15 scores and more than 1,500 yards, and running back Todd Gurley has accounted for 450 yards and is averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Unfortunately for Georgia, the offense has lost its top two receivers and change-of-pace back Keith Marshall for the year with injuries. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs’ defense has had issues of its own, and it currently ranks 95th in the country in scoring.

The Tigers Win If:

If the Tigers are going to pull off the upset, they have to be able to exploit a struggling Georgia defense. In particular, Missouri needs to get Josey and Hansbrough rolling early in order to control the pace of the game and keep the Georgia crowd out of the game. Yes, the Tigers ultimately just need to put points on the board, but if they can do so while giving their defense some time to rest, it will help them in the long run long. Defensively, Missouri needs to be able to get pressure on Murray and force as many difficult throws as possible. If the Tigers wear down the Georgia defense with their versatile ground game and make Murray uncomfortable in the pocket, they can outscore the Bulldogs in a battle of strong offenses.

The Bulldogs Win If:

For Georgia to win the game, slowing down the Missouri ground game is a must. The Tigers have two running backs and QB that can rip off chunks of yardage with every carry, but the Bulldogs have a much better chance of controlling the Missouri offense if they can force obvious passing situations. On offense, Murray and Gurley have to deliver in the wake of all the injuries and keep the Bulldogs scoring attack rolling. If the Georgia offense doesn’t miss a beat and Franklin has to try to out-throw Murray in a high-scoring shootout, the Bulldogs should win the game.

Bottom Line:

While the Tigers are the untested team in this matchup, the Bulldogs’ defense has failed every major test it has faced so far. In three games against ranked foes, the unit is allowing 35.3 points per game. Meanwhile, Georgia is 2-1 in those games and is only a combined plus 11 on the scoreboard. Enter a Missouri offense that is loaded with speedy weapons and a QB that is a matchup nightmare for any defense. Yes, Murray has already shown he can lead the Bulldogs to victory in high-scoring shootouts, but he needed some serious heroics to lead his injury-riddled team to an overtime win over a weak Tennessee team last weekend. The Tigers have a lot more firepower than the Volunteers, and while the Bulldogs may come out on top, a close, back-and-forth game should be on tap with the Tigers covering the spread.

Prediction: Missouri Tigers (+8) Cover the Spread

Missouri @ Georgia
Time: 12 PM EST
Line: Georgia -7
Total: Over/Under 565

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