2013 College Football Picks: LSU @ Alabama Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/9/2013

2013 College Football Picks: LSU @ Alabama Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/9/2013: Compared to recent years, Saturday night’s meeting between the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0, 5-0 SEC) and 13th-ranked LSU Tigers (7-2, 3-2 SEC) in Tuscaloose is somewhat benign. After all, we are talking about two teams that are not only used to meeting with the top spot in the SEC West on the line but that played against each other in the BCS title game two years ago. With two losses, the Tigers aren’t really a factor in the SEC or national title race, but we are still talking about two excellent programs that don’t exactly like each other. Not to mention the fact that Alabama still has everything to play for while LSU has a chance to ruin the three-peat hopes of their biggest rival and former coach. Regardless of their records, it is must-watch television whenever these two teams get together. This time around the two-time defending national champion Crimson Tide are 13-point favorites at home.

After years of relying heavily on their ground and defense to win games, the Tigers have taken to the air more in 2013. Quarterback Zach Mettenberger has thrown for nearly 2,500 yards for a passing attack that ranks in the top 30 nationally. Receivers Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. have been his main targets, and both enter Saturday’s game with eight touchdowns and more than 800 yards. Of course, the Tigers’ ground game hasn’t disappeared, and with 922 yards and 12 scores, Jeremy Hill heads a rushing attack that is averaging more than 200 yards per game. The biggest different for LSU this season has been on the defensive side of the ball where the Tigers rank outside the top 30 in points allowed after being one of the five-best units in the country the last few seasons.

Balance remains the key to success for the Crimson Tide. Entering Saturday’s game, Alabama ranks 11th in the country in scoring at 41.3 points per game, and the Crimson Tide defense has been the stingiest in the country. The unit is allowing just 9.8 points per game, and that average drops to 5.1 points per game if you throw out the shootout against Texas A&M. On the offensive side of the ball, quarterback A.J. McCarron has been his typically-efficient self, throwing 16 touchdowns to just three interceptions while completing 69.4 percent of his passes. Meanwhile, running backs T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake have led this year’s ground attack, combining for 17 scores and more than 1,200 yards for the 26th-best rushing attack in the country.

The Tigers Win If:

If the Tigers are going to pull off the upset, they need to a big game from Mettenberger and their passing attack. Alabama likes to play tight coverage on the outside, and Landry and Beckham have to be able to win their one-on-one matchups and connect with Mettenberger on a few big plays throughout the game in order to flip field position and create some quality scoring opportunities. Not to mention the fact that the Crimson Tide will have to think twice about pressuring Mettenberger if LSU is consistently hitting on big plays down the field. Defensively, the Tigers have to find a way to get consistent pressure on McCarron in order to prevent the Alabama QB from being able to sit back and pick apart the Tigers’ secondary. If the Tigers can get a big performance from their passing attacks and make McCarron uncomfortable in the pocket, they can knock off Alabama.

The Crimson Tide Win If:

It starts in the trenches for Alabama, and if the Crimson Tide are going to remain undefeated, they need their defensive line to get into the face of Mettenberger on a routine basis and need their offensive line to give McCarron and company time to operate. Mettenberger has a stout group of receivers, but if he is constantly on the run and getting knocked around, he won’t have time to find them. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide are loaded with offensive weapons, and if McCarron has time to scan the field, he should have no problem picking apart an LSU defense that has been more vulnerable than in recent years. If Alabama controls the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, McCarron and company should have no problem putting up enough points to get by the Tigers.

Bottom Line:

Last year, the Crimson Tide needed a touchdown pass with less than a minute left to sneak by the Tigers 21-17. The down-to-the-wire contest has been the norm between these two rivals lately with three straight regular-season meetings being decided by four points or less. This time around, Alabama’s ground game isn’t nearly as dominant as it has been while LSU’s defense isn’t nearly as stout. On the other hand, both sides bring much-improved passing attacks to the table. The deciding factor will likely end up being Mettenberger, and his history of success in big games isn’t exactly inspiring. Not to mention the fact that five of his seven interceptions have come in LSU’s last two games, including three in the Tigers’ loss to Ole Miss. In the end, there is no reason to believe Mettenberger will be able to make enough big plays to all the Tigers to upset the Crimson Tide. However, LSU still has enough talent and more than enough pride to make their rival work for a win.

Prediction: LSU Tigers (+13) Cover the Spread

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