2013 College Football Picks: Florida @ LSU Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/12/2013

2013 College Football Picks: Florida @ LSU Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/12/2013: Another battle between ranked SEC opponents is on tap Saturday when the 17th-ranked Florida Gators (4-1, 3-0 SEC) head to Baton Rouge to face the 10th-ranked LSU Tigers (5-1, 2-1 SEC). Although the teams are in different divisions within the conference, the outcome will have a serious impact on the division title chances for both sides. The Gators need to win to ensure that they keep pace with Georgia in the SEC East while the Tigers can’t afford another conference loss if they plan on dethroning Alabama in the West Division. Armed with home-field advantage, LSU is a 7-point favorite.

For the second year in a row, Florida has been winning games despite a modest offense. The Gators roll into Saturday’s game ranked 93rd in the country in scoring. An injury to quarterback Jeff Driskel has really slowed the passing attack, but backup Tyler Murphy has been respectable in relief. If the offense does have an X-factor, it is receiver Solomon Patton, who has four receiving touchdowns and is averaging more than 18 yards per catch. Meanwhile, Florida’s defense has been outstanding. The Gators rank fourth in the country in points allowed, and they are giving up just 12.2 points per game thus far.

After years of winning with defense, the Tigers find themselves with a powerful offense this season. The emergence of quarterback Zach Mettenberger and running back Jeremy Hill has LSU ranked inside the top 10 in scoring. Mettenberger has 15 touchdowns thus far with 13 going to the dynamic receiving duo of Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. The Tigers’ defense has taken a bit of a step back after losing a ton of starters to the NFL, but the unit has remained solid outside of a poor showing in a loss to Georgia.

The Gators Win If:

If the Gators are going to pull off the upset, they are going to need another big effort from their defense. Florida simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to beat the Tigers in a shootout, but if the defense can keep the game low scoring and help win the field position battle, the Gators will have a chance. On the offensive end, Florida needs to support its defense by slowing the pace and controlling the clock with its ground game. If the Gators turn the game into a low-scoring affair that is decided by a couple of big plays, their defense could carry them to a win.

The Tigers Win If:

For the Tigers to win the game, they need to get their offense rolling early. Points are LSU’s best friend against a struggling Florida offense, and if the Tigers jump on top early, the Gators won’t be able to keep pace. Avoiding turnovers on offense will be equally important because the last thing the Tigers want to do is give the Florida offense a short field to work with. Defensively, LSU needs to take away any big plays from the Gators’ offense and force them to work their way down the field in order to score. If the Tigers have a strong performance on offense, the Gators won’t be able to win a higher-scoring game.

Bottom Line:

The Florida defense is definitely legit, but now that Mettenberger is playing with confidence, the LSU offense is the real deal, as well. More importantly, the Gators’ offense just hasn’t been able to provide consistent support. The Tigers have multiple backs that they can hammer away with, and Mettenberger has plenty of weapons to throw to. Even a rested Florida defense is going to have a tough time shutting down the LSU offense, and a worn down Gators’ unit won’t have a chance. Florida will certainly make Mettenberger and company work, but the crowd in “Death Valley” and the firepower on LSU’s offense will be too much for the Gators to handle in the end.

Prediction: LSU Tigers (-7) Cover the Spread

Florida @ LSU
Time: 3:30 PM EST
Line: LSU -7.5
Total: Over/Under 48.5

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