2013 College Football Picks: Arizona State @ Stanford Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAF Picks 9/21/2013

2013 College Football Picks: Arizona State @ Stanford Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/21/2013: Two top-25 teams open conference play this weekend when the 23rd-ranked Arizona State Sun Devils (2-0) head to Palo Alto to face the fifth-ranked Stanford Cardinal (2-0) in the Pac-12 opener for both teams. While the Cardinal were one of the preseason favorites for both the Pac-12 and national title, the Sun Devils didn’t have near the expectations heading into the year. However, ASU rolls into the matchup on the heels of a surprising and controversial upset of the Wisconsin Badgers, and if the Sun Devils pull another shocker this weekend, their outlook suddenly becomes a lot brighter. That being said, the Cardinal are favored in this matchup and are giving six points to the Sun Devils.

Arizona State’s best player is defensive tackle Will Sutton, but the 2-0 start has been fueled by the strong play of the quarterback Taylor Kelly and offense. The Sun Devils currently rank in the top 20 nationally in both passing yards and scoring, and Kelly has thrown for more than 300 yards in both games. Kelly also has five touchdowns on the year, and when he isn’t scoring, bruising back Marion Grice is. Grice hasn’t run for a ton of yards, but he already has five touchdowns, including four in the upset of Wisconsin. As for Sutton and the rest of the defense, a shutout Sacramento State in the opener may have been misleading. The unit allowed 30 points and more than 200 rushing yards to Wisconsin last weekend, albeit in a win.

For Stanford, the formula that has led to the team’s success in the post Andrew Luck era remains the same this season with the Cardinal relying on defense and their power running game to win games. Senior Tyler Gaffney has been strong as the starting back thus far, running for 236 yards and three scores in two games. Meanwhile, quarterback Kevin Hogan has been solid in his first full year as starter, throwing for five scores and just one interception and providing enough of a threat to keep defenses honest. On the flip side, a defense that was elite last year and returns a ton of starters has been good but not great so far. Particularly concerning is that fact that the unit allowed more than 200 rushing yards to Army in a win last weekend.

The Sun Devils Win If:

If the Sun Devils are going to pull off another upset, they need Sutton and the rest of the defensive front to slow down the Stanford ground attack. Stanford’s entire philosophy revolves around the team’s ability to run the ball. If ASU takes that element away, the Cardinal defense won’t get as much rest as it is accustomed to getting, and there will be a lot more pressure on Hogan. When they have the ball, the Sun Devils have to protect Kelly from Stanford’s stout pass rush and allow him time to pick apart a relatively inexperienced Stanford secondary. In the end, Arizona State can win this game if they establish a somewhat faster pace and make sure the game is decided by which QB can make more big throws.

The Cardinal Win If:

Although Arizona State may have the best nose tackle in the country in Sutton, the Cardinal can’t let that impact what they do on offense if they are going to win the game. Stanford still needs to control the line of scrimmage and establish their power running game in order to control the clock and the pace of things. The Sun Devils’ passing attack can be potent, but so can Stanford’s pass rush. If the Cardinal offense can help keep their defense rested, they can pressure Kelly and slow down the ASU offense. At the end of the day, Stanford just needs to do what it does best and control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and control the clock in order to win this game.

Bottom Line:

While Sutton is the type of player that can take over a game on the defensive end, Stanford’s loaded offensive line should be able to find creative ways to slow him down while maintaining a solid rushing attack. After all, the Badgers ran all over the Sun Devils just last weekend. More importantly, Stanford’s pass rush is the perfect recipe for slowing down Kelly and the ASU pass-happy offense. Keep in mind that the Cardinal led the country in sacks last season, and all the top players from the front seven are back this season. Granted, Stanford hasn’t looked like a championship-caliber team just yet, but there is nothing like a visit from a ranked conference foe to bring out the best in an experienced, talented team. When all is said and done, Stanford’s physicality in the trenches and ability to pressure the opposing quarterback will be too much for the Sun Devils to handle.

Prediction: Stanford Cardinal (-6) Cover the Spread 

Arizona State @ Stanford
Time: 7 PM EST on
Line: Stanford -6.5
Total: Over/Under 52

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