2013 College Football Picks: Alabama @ Auburn Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/30/2013

2013 College Football Picks: Alabama @ Auburn Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/30/2013: The Iron Bowl is one of the most heated rivalries in college football, and when the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0, 7-0 SEC) face the fourth-ranked Auburn Tigers (10-1, 6-1 SEC) Saturday, there will be a lot more on the line than just bragging rights. The winner of the game will win the SEC West and play in the conference title game. For the Crimson Tide, a win would also keep them on track to play in the BCS title game for the third year in a row. Meanwhile, a win for the Tigers would put them in the mix for a berth in the BCS title game. Games don’t get much more important than this, and Alabama is an 11-point favorite on the road.

It has been business as usual for the two-time defending champion Crimson Tide. Alabama ranks in the top 25 nationally in rushing and in the top 15 in scoring. Meanwhile, the defense is allowing the fewest points in the country, surrendering just 9.3 points per game. Quarterback A.J. McCarron has been the model of efficiency under center, and the two-headed monster of T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake has combined for more than 1,600 rushing yards and 20 scores. On the defensive side of the ball, linebacker C.J. Mosley and safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix are among the unit’s bigger names.

For the Tigers, a suddenly potent ground attack has led a remarkable turnaround. Auburn rolls into Saturday’s showdown averaging the second most rushing yards in the country, and the offense ranks 17th nationally in scoring. Running back Tre Mason is the workhorse of the ground attack, and he leads the team with more than 1,100 yards. Dual-threat QB Nick Marshall adds another dimension to the attack, and he has already topped 800 yards on the ground. On the flip side, the Auburn passing game hasn’t done much damage, and the Tigers currently ranked outside the top 100 nationally in passing yards.

The Crimson Tide Win If:

If the Crimson Tide are going to stay undefeated, they need to slow down the Auburn ground game and force Marshall to have to beat them from the pocket. Controlling the line of scrimmage, especially on early down, will be crucial in whether or not Alabama is able to slow down the Tigers’ rushing attack. If the Crimson Tide can consistently but Marshall in obvious passing situations, they should be able to neutralize the Auburn offense. When Alabama has the ball, establishing the power ground game with Yeldon and Drake will put the Crimson Tide in the driver’s seat. If Alabama is able to move the ball on the ground, it will allow the Crimson Tide to control the tempo in a hostile environment and set up big play opportunities off play action.

The Tigers Win If:

If Auburn is going to pull off the upset, the Tigers have to win in the trenches and be able to move the ball on the ground. Winning on early downs will be particularly important for the Tigers so that Marshall isn’t forced to become a pure passer. On defense, Auburn has to be able to get slow down the Alabama ground game on early downs and get pressure on McCarron when the Crimson Tide to throw the ball. At the end of the day, staying close throughout the game will also be crucial so that the crowd will stay in the game and make life that much tougher on the Alabama offense.

Bottom Line:

For the first time since 1971, the Iron Bowl will feature a battle of top-five teams. More importantly, it will decide the SEC West so an already-bitter rivalry is going to be even more pressure packed. Plain and simple, the home crowd is going to raucous, and the Tigers are sure to have a huge adrenaline rush out of the gate. That being said, the Crimson Tide defense is allowing just 9.3 points per game and just 6.6 points if you throw out the game against Johnny Manziel. Not to mention the fact that the strength of the unit is its excellent linebacker corps, and Mosley and company cover sideline to sideline as well as any group in the country. It is hard to imagine the Tigers being able to line up and run the ball down Alabama’s throat, and it is even harder to imagine Nick Saban being unable to figure out a scheme to slow down a mostly one-dimensional offense. When all is said and done, the Crimson Tide are too balanced on both sides of the ball, and they will wear down Auburn.

Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11) Cover the Spread

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