2013 College Football Picks: ACC Title Game Odds and Predictions – Duke vs Florida State Free Picks

2013 College Football Picks: Pac-12 Title Game Odds and Predictions – Stanford vs Arizona St Free Picks: The top-ranked Florida State Seminoles (12-0, 8-0 ACC) are set to face the 20-th-ranked Duke Blue Devils (10-2, 6-2 ACC) in the ACC title game Saturday night, and few could have predicted the matchup or what’s at stake when the 2013 college football season began. After all, the Seminoles can punch their ticket to the BCS title game with a victory while the Blue Devils can earn an automatic BCS bid by pulling off the upset. The pressure will certainly be on Florida State, but beating the No. 1 team is still easier said than done. No surprisingly, Duke enters the showdown as a 30-point underdog.

Led by Heisman Trophy frontrunner Jameis Winston, the Seminoles have been absolutely dominant this season. The dual-threat QB has thrown the third-most touchdowns and has the best pass rating for an offense that ranks in the top 15 in passing and second in points scored. The run game has also been excellent, and Florida State backs average 5.7 yards per carry whenever the run the ball. Believe it or not, the Seminoles have actually been better defensively, and they are currently allowing the fewest points of any team in the country. The unit also leads the nation with 23 interceptions and five defensive scores.

Duke has simply been finding a way to win thanks to respectable play across the board. Nationally, the Blue Devils rank in the middle of the pack in both rushing and passing, and they rank just outside the top 40 in points scored and just inside the top 40 in fewest points allowed. Quarterback Anthony Boone hasn’t been anything special, throwing 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions. However, Duke also uses Brandon Connette under center, and the dual-threat QB has rushed for 13 scores. If the offense does have a star, it is receiver Jamison Crowder. The junior has seven scores and more than 1,100 yards this season. Defensively, the Blue Devils are allowing 23.0 points per game.

The Blue Devils Win If:

If Duke is going to pull off an upset, they are going to need a flawless performance on offense and a few favors from the Seminoles. Plain and simple, the Blue Devils are going to need Florida State to play overconfident and sloppy, and Duke then needs to take advantage of every opportunity. In addition, the Blue Devils need to connect on a couple of big plays, and may even take a few trick plays to get the job done. If Duke plays its best game of the year and Florida State plays its worst, anything can happen.

The Seminoles Win If:

If the Seminoles show up focused and take care of business, this game shouldn’t be close. Florida State needs to start the game with plenty of energy, attacking and punishing Duke in the trenches on both sides of the ball. A quick start on the part of the Seminoles should quickly crush any upset dreams of the Blue Devils, and allowing Duke to hang around is the last thing Florida State needs to do. At the end of the day, the Seminoles are definitely the more talented team in this matchup, and winning shouldn’t be an issue as long as they bring something that resembles their A game.

Bottom Line:

As nice as Duke’s surprise run to its first-ever ACC title game has been, let’s not kid ourselves. The Blue Devils are 0-18 all-time against Florida State, losing those games by an average of 34 points. Meanwhile, this year’s Seminoles have an average margin of victory in conference play of 40.4 and have won every ACC game by at least two touchdowns. Not to mention the fact that Florida State has the country’s stingiest defense and second-best offense while Duke is mediocre across the board. Give the Blue Devils credit for finding ways to win, and they definitely deserve to be in the ACC title game. That being said, there is no reasons the Seminoles won’t steamroll Duke the way they have every other ACC foe they have faced this season.

Prediction: Florida State Seminoles (-30) Cover the Spread

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