2013 College Football MAC Title Game Odds and Predictions – Bowling Green vs No Illinois Free Picks

2013 College Football MAC Title Game Odds and Predictions – Bowling Green vs No Illinois Free Picks: While the MAC isn’t considered a power conference in college football, there will be plenty of teams from major conferences tuning into to Friday night’s MAC title game. After all, the 14th-ranked Northern Illinois Huskies (12-0, 8-0 MAC) have a chance to lock up an at-large BCS bowl bid if they can defeat the Bowling Green Falcons (9-3, 7-1 MAC). In addition, NIU quarterback Jordan Lynch is making a legitimate push for the Heisman Trophy, and Friday’s game will give him one last big stage to state his case. While the Huskies will be trying to crash the BCS party, the Falcons will be trying to spoil the Huskies’ quest for back-to-back BCS bowl bids. Heading into the matchup, Northern Illinois is a 3-point favorite.

For the Huskies, a powerful rushing attack has fueled a high-scoring offense that currently ranks ninth in the country in points per game. Lynch is the workhorse of the attack, and in addition to becoming just the fifth player in college football history to pass and run for at least 20 touchdowns in one season, he also ranks third in the country in rushing with more than 1,700 yards. Meanwhile, running back Cameron Stingily has also topped 1,000 yards for a ground attack that ranks fourth in the country. Defensively, the Huskies rank 39th in terms of points allowed, and with 30.0 sacks and 17 interceptions, the unit is solid in just about every aspect.

A balanced offense and an excellent defense have carried the Falcons to the MAC title game. Running back Travis Green has more than 1,400 yards for a rushing attack that ranks in the top 25 nationally. Meanwhile, quarterback Matt Johnson has provided plenty of balance, throwing for 18 touchdowns and 2,802 yards. Overall, Bowling Green ranks 33rd in the country in scoring. Of course, the Falcons have been even better on the defense side of the ball where they are allowing the fifth-fewest points in the country. While the unit doesn’t generate a lot of turnovers, Bowling Green is holding opponents to just 13.8 points per game this season and has held opponents to seven points or less seven different times.

The Falcons Win If:

If Bowling Green is going to pull off the upset, it’s stingy defense has to bring it’s A game. In particular, the Falcons need to be flawless with their tackling. Lynch isn’t the fastest or most elusive runner, but he has been killing opponents with his ability to shed tackles and gain yards after contact. Offensively, Bowling Green needs to be able to establish its ground game in order to control the pace. Northern Illinois has been able to consistently wear down opponents with long, sustained drives, but if the Falcons can turn the tables, the Huskies’ defense will be the unit that wears down while the Falcons’ defense remains fresh.

The Huskies Win If:

For the Huskies to continue their undefeated season, they need to get their powerful running attack rolling early. Part of the reason Northern Illinois’ offense has been so effective is that even when it isn’t piling up points, it is usually moving the ball and making opposing defenses work. If Lynch and company are able to start churning out some longer drivers from the start, they should be able to tire out the Falcons over the course of the game. Defensively, the Huskies need to focus on shutting down the Falcons’ ground game to allow their solid pass rush and opportunistic secondary to take advantage of some obvious passing situations.

Bottom Line:

Bowling Green rolls into this matchup with its offense and defense firing on all cylinders, and in the Falcons last four games, they are averaging 44 points and giving up just 4.3 points per game. That being said, Bowling Green simply hasn’t played a team of Northern Illinois’ caliber during the stretch of all year for that matter, and when the Falcons did step out of conference, they were shelled by Indiana and lost to Mississippi State. Meanwhile, the Huskies actually beat a pair of Big Ten teams this year, including a solid Iowa squad, and when they faced the same Toledo team that handed the Falcons their lone conference loss, the Huskies came away with an easy 35-17 win over the Rockets. The battle between Northern Illinois’ rushing attack and Bowling Green defense will be fun to watch, but with a dynamic player like Lynch to fall back on, the Huskies will follow the same recipe for success that they have used all year and wear down the Falcons and pull away for the win.

Prediction: Northern Illinois Huskies (-3) Cover the Spread

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