2013 College Football Free Picks: Michigan @ Michigan State Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAF Picks 11/2/2013

2013 College Football Free Picks: Michigan @ Michigan State Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAF Picks 11/2/2013: A pair of top-25 teams will meet Saturday in a Big Ten showdown with serious conference title implications. The 21st-ranked Michigan Wolverines (6-1, 2-1 Big Ten) will head to East Lansing to take on the 22nd-ranked Michigan State Spartans (7-1, 4-0 Big Ten), and the winner will control its own destiny in the Legends Division and have the inside track to the Big Ten title game. Throw in the fact that there is certainly no love lost between these in-state rivals, and the game is without question the most important to date for both sides. Playing at home, the Spartans are 6-point favorites.

A powerful offense that ranks eighth in the country in scoring has led the way for the Wolverines this season and has overshadowed a defense that has allowed almost 27 points per game. The centerpiece of the attack has been quarterback Devin Gardner, and the dual-threat weapon has passed for nearly 1,800 yards and added more than 500 on the ground. Gardner has thrown 10 interceptions, but he has also combined for 22 scores. Receiver Jeremy Gallon and tight end Devin Funchess have been explosive targets in the passing game while senior running back Fitzgerald Toussaint has helped out on the ground, rushing for 575 yards and 11 scores thus far.

As they have the past couple of seasons, the Spartans have relied on their power running game and stingy defense to win games. Michigan State currently ranks 37th in the country in rushing, averaging just under 200 yards per game. Junior Jeremy Langford has been the workhorse, and he enters Saturday’s game with more than 600 yards and nine scores. The team’s passing attack does rank outside the top 100 nationally, but sophomore quarterback Connor Cook has been solid since taking over as the starter, throwing for 12 scores and only two interceptions. Meanwhile, Michigan State’s loaded defense has been as stout as advertised, and the unit ranks third in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 12.3 points per game.

The Wolverines Win If:

If Michigan is going to hand the Spartans their first conference loss of the season, the Wolverines need their offense to be firing on all cylinders. In particular, they need to remain balanced and stay out of obvious passing situations in order to keep a stingy Michigan State defense guessing. On defense, Michigan has to slow down the Spartans’ ground game in order to put more pressure on Cook to throw the ball and to prevent Michigan State from controlling the clock and dictating the tempo. If the Wolverines are able to score early and speed up the tempo of the game, they should have no trouble getting the better of a Michigan State team with a somewhat-limited offensive attack.

The Spartans Win If:

For the Spartans to remain on top of the division, they have to control the pace of the game. Plain and simple, Michigan State doesn’t have the offensive firepower to win a fast-paced, high-scoring shootout against the Wolverines. On the flip side, the Spartans can tip the scales in their favor if they establish their power running game early and consistently move the ball in order to keep their defense rested and Gardner and company on the sidelines. Defensively, Michigan State needs to win on the early downs in order to limit the play-calling options for the Wolverines and to make Gardner more of a pocket passer. If the Spartans make sure the game is played at a controlled pace and make sure Gardner has to try to most of the damage with his arm, Michigan State should win the game.

Bottom Line:

In the end, this matchup is a drastic clash of styles, and the tempo of the game is going to go a long way to deciding the outcome. With that in mind, Michigan’s struggling defense becomes a major concern. Keep in mind that the Wolverines have allowed their last two Big Ten opponents to top 40 points, and they allowed Indiana to score 47 points just last weekend in Ann Arbor. Even an average Michigan State offense should be able to move the ball against the Michigan defense, which should allow the Spartans to control the pace of the game and keep their defense fresh. A well-rested Michigan State defense will be able to make the Wolverines work for their points, and more importantly, the MSU defense should be able to put the turnover-prone Gardner into tough spots. Throw in the home crowd, and the Spartans excellent defense and modest offense should get the better of the Michigan’s dangerous offense but unreliable defense.

Prediction: Michigan State Spartans (-4) Cover the Spread

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