2013 College Football Free Picks: Miami @ Florida State Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/2/2013

2013 College Football Free Picks: Miami @ Florida State Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/2/2013: One of the biggest rivalries in college football will be renewed this weekend when the seventh-ranked Miami Hurricanes (7-0, 3-0 ACC) head to Tallahassee to face the third-ranked Florida State Seminoles (7-0, 5-0 ACC). While these two programs are no strangers to meeting with a lot on the line, Saturday night’s showdown will be the first time in more than a decade that championship hopes hang in the balance for both sides. Granted, there is a good chance that these two teams will meet again in the ACC title game regardless of the outcome, but only the winner of this weekend’s meeting will have a chance at playing in the BCS title game. Although both teams are ranked in the top 10, the Seminoles are 22-point favorites at home.

Balance on both sides of the ball has fueled the Hurricanes hot start. Miami currently ranks 20th in the country in scoring (39.6) and is allowing the 11th-fewest points per game (17.7). Running back Duke Johnson has been the star of an offense that ranks in the top 25 in rushing, and he enters Saturday’s game with 823 yards and is averaging 6.7 yards per carry. On the flip side, quarterback Stephen Morris has been average at best, throwing for 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Florida State has been as complete as any team in the country this season. The Seminoles rank third in the country in scoring at 52.6 points per game, and they are allowing the fourth-fewest points per game on defense. Freshman quarterback Jameis Winston has emerged as a Heisman candidate, and he has 23 touchdowns and more than 2,100 yards for the 11th-best passing attack in the country. Meanwhile, running backs Devonta Freeman and Karlos Williams head a top-25 rushing attack, and both players are averaging well over six yards per carry behind an excellent offensive line.

The Hurricanes Win If:

If the Hurricanes are going to pull off the upset, they have to be able to generate consistent offense. Miami doesn’t necessarily have to play keep away and try to control the clock, but the Hurricanes can’t afford to go three and out too often and still have a chance at winning. On the defensive side of the ball, the Hurricanes have to find a way to limit the number of big plays for Florida State’s offense. Granted, slowing down the Seminoles is easier said than done, but Miami can’t allow the game to turn into a high-scoring shootout. If the Hurricanes can produce sustained, quality drives on offense most of the game and at least make FSU work for its points, they will have a chance.

The Seminoles Win If:

If the Seminoles are able to get their offense rolling early, they are going to be in the driver’s seat in this matchup. After all, the weak link of the Miami offense has been Morris, and if Florida State can force the Hurricanes to play from behind, it is going to put more pressure on Morris and take Johnson out of the game. An early lead also keeps the pressure off Winston, and while he has shown no signs of struggling in pressure-packed situations, there is nothing wrong with avoiding a close game if possible. The bottom line is that playing from ahead makes life easier on both Florida State’s offense and defense, and if the Seminoles jump on top early, the rout could be on.

Bottom Line:

Although this is a battle of top-10 teams, the Seminoles have been by far the more dominant team, especially since conference play began. Florida State has shelled three straight ACC opponents by a margin of 163-31, and during the stretch, the Seminoles went on the road and dismantled third-ranked Clemson. On the flip side, the Hurricanes have been sneaking by in conference play, allowing 21 or more points in all three games and winning their last two games by a combined seven points. Worse yet, Morris has just four touchdowns compared to six interceptions in ACC games. Plain and simple, Miami simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with the high-powered FSU offense, and despite a sizeable point spread, the Seminoles have had no problem blowing out opponents no matter how highly ranked.

Prediction: Florida State Seminoles (-22) Cover the Spread

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