2013 College Football Bowl Picks: Sheraton Hawaii Bowl Odds and Predictions – Boise St vs Oregon St 12/24/2013

2013 College Football Bowl Picks: Sheraton Hawaii Bowl Odds and Predictions – Boise St vs Oregon St 12/24/2013: The Boise State Broncos (8-4, 6-2 MWC) will try to take down another power conference foe when they face the Oregon State Beavers (6-6, 4-5 Pac-12) in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. With four losses and a second-place finish in their division, the Broncos actually had a down year by their recent standards. Meanwhile, the Beavers lost their final five games of the season, tumbling out of the top 25 and ultimately ending up fourth in their division. Despite the slide, Oregon State is a 3-point favorite in this matchup in part because long-time Boise State coach Chris Petersen opted to leave the program to become coach at Washington.

Despite losing starting quarterback Joe Southwick midway through the season, the Broncos have managed to field a somewhat-balanced, respectable offensive attack. Boise State ranks just outside the top 30 nationally in both passing and rushing yards, and the Broncos rank 17th in the country in scoring. Running back Jay Ajayi has been a workhorse, rushing for more than 1,300 yards and 17 scores, and backup QB Grant Hendrick has thrown 15 touchdowns and just five picks since replacing Southwick. Defensively, the Broncos haven’t been as stingy as in recent years, but they do rank in the top 40 nationally in points allowed.

For Oregon State, it is all about the passing game. The Beavers rank third in the country in passing yards as a team, and quarterback Sean Mannion’s 4,403 passing yards are the second most in the country and his 36 touchdowns are the third most. His favorite target is receiver Brandin Cooks, who leads the country with 1,670 receiving yards. On the flip side, the Beavers are one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to running the ball, and their defense is allowing 32.1 points per game.

The Broncos Win If:

For the Broncos to win the game, they need to make sure Ajayi gets established early and stays involved in the game. After all, the best way to contain the pass-happy Oregon State offense is to keep it on the sidelines and control the clock. Not to mention the fact that a steady diet of Ajayi should eventually break an Oregon State defense that has yielded plenty of points this season. Defensively, the Broncos have to get pressure on Mannion and do whatever they can to make receivers other than Cooks beat them. At the very least, Boise State has to make the Beavers’ offense work its way down the field rather than allow quick scores on big plays.

The Beavers Win If:

The formula for winning is pretty simple for Oregon State. If Mannion and Cooks are clicking and the passing game is dialed in, the Beavers are going to be in great shape. While Boise State’s offense has been solid, the Broncos don’t want to get into an aerial shootout against Oregon State, especially with a backup QB under center. If the Beavers are able to put points on the board early and create a fast pace to the game, it is going to take Boise State’s best offensive weapon out of the game while taking pressure off of Oregon State’s shaky defense. If this game becomes a battle of quarterbacks, Mannion has the weapons at his disposal to win a shootout.

Bottom Line:

The truth is that neither one of these teams have been very good against top competition. Boise State got slammed by Washington 38-6 to open the year, but the Beavers were shredded by the same Huskies 69-27. Perhaps more importantly, Oregon State’s high-powered passing attack has struggled to put points on the board against the better teams, and the Beavers have averaged just 21 points during their five-game slide. Meanwhile, Oregon State’s defense has been torched all year, and the Beavers even allowed 49 points to FCS opponent Eastern Washington in an ugly loss to open the season. Granted, the Broncos did lose their coach and aren’t the same team that has crashed the BCS party in the past, but they are definitely the more balanced team in this matchup. The Beavers’ one-dimensional offense and porous defense will haunt them in this one.

Prediction: Boise State Broncos (+3) Cover the Spread

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