2013 College Football Bowl Picks: Russell Athletic Bowl Odds and Predictions – Miami-Fl vs Louisville 12/28/2013

2013 College Football Bowl Picks: Russell Athletic Bowl Odds and Predictions – Miami-Fl vs Louisville 12/28/2013: When the Miami Hurricanes (9-3, 5-3 ACC) face the 18th-ranked Louisville Cardinals (11-1, 7-1 American) in the Russell Athletic Bowl Saturday, there will be no shortage of storylines. After all, Miami will be making its return to postseason play after a self-imposed two-year bowl ban and will be doing so against star Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who originally committed to the Hurricanes. The game is also likely Bridgewater’s last before making the jump to the NFL, and although the Cardinals just missed an undefeated season and return trip to a BCS bowl, Louisville is a 3 ½-point favorite in this matchup.

Miami’s reemergence this year has had a lot to do with the team’s improved play on offense. Quarterback Stephen Morris has battled some turnover issues but has been solid for an offense that ranks 30th in passing and 26th in scoring. Receiver Allen Hurns has been Morris’ top target, and he has more than 1,100 yards heading into the bowl game. On the flip side, Miami’s ground game took a hit when running back Duke Johnson went down eight games into the year with an ankle injury. The Hurricanes’ defense has also been suspect at times, ranking 59th in points allowed overall.

With Bridgewater at the helm, Louisville rolls into the bowl game with a top-20 passing attack and a top-30 scoring offense. Bridgewater has thrown for more than 3,500 yards and 28 scores, and he also ranks in the top five nationally in both QB rating and completion percentage. Junior DeVante Parker has been his top target, hauling in 11 scores this year. Louisville has also been excellent defensively. The Cardinals are allowing the third-fewest points in the country and have allowed more than 17 points only twice in 12 games.

The Hurricanes Win If:

If the Hurricanes are going to win the game, they have to be able to establish some sort of ground game. Morris has been effective this year, but if the Cardinals don’t have to respect the run, the turnover-prone Morris could make an appearance in the face of consistent pressure. Defensively, the Hurricanes have to make Bridgewater pick his way down the field. The Cardinals aren’t overly balanced on offense, and if Miami can take away the big plays in the passing game, Louisville’s offense becomes a lot less potent.

The Cardinals Win If:

For Louisville to win, Bridgewater will have to have a solid game. The Cardinals’ offense basically lives and dies with it star QB so keeping him upright and giving him time to work is a must. Defensively, Louisville needs to be able to contain Miami’s weakened ground attack with just seven in the box in order to allow the Cardinals’ defense to focus mainly on shutting down and harassing Morris. In an ideal world, Louisville turns this game into a battle between Bridgewater and Morris.

Bottom Line:

It would be easy to assume that having Bridgewater under center makes the Cardinals the easy choice in this matchup, and when he is dialed in, Louisville is tough. However, Bridgewater enters the bowl game in a bit of a funk by his standards. He has failed to top 300 yards in his last four starts, managing just five touchdowns and two picks. During the stretch, the Cardinals have squeaked out three straight seven-point wins. Perhaps more importantly, the stingy Louisville defense was gashed for 38 points by UCF and quarterback Blake Bortles. The Hurricanes may not be perfect, but they do have the most offensive firepower the Cardinals will have seen this season. Louisville has played a tissue paper-soft schedule this year, and with Bridgewater seemingly not on top of his game, the Cardinals are in for a wake-up call.

Prediction: Miami Hurricanes (+3 ½) Cover the Spread

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