2013 College Football Bowl Picks: Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl Odds and Predictions – Fresno State vs USC 12/21/2013

2013 College Football Bowl Picks: Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl Odds and Predictions – Fresno State vs USC 12/21/2013: A pair of top-25 teams will meet on the first day of the college football’s bowl season when the 20th-ranked Fresno State Bulldogs (11-1, 7-1 MWC) face the 25th-ranked USC Trojans (9-4, 6-3 Pac-12). Despite multiple coaching changes, the Trojans rallied after a slow start to win five of their final six games. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs won the Mountain West and came within one loss in the regular season finale of a perfect season and possible BCS bowl appearance. The game figures to be a battle between Fresno State’s high-powered offense and USC’s athletic defense, and the Trojans are six-point favorites.

The Bulldogs roll into the matchup with the top passing attack in the country and fifth-best scoring offense. Quarterback Derek Carr leads the country with almost 4,900 passing yards and 48 touchdowns while receiver Davante Adams leads the country with 23 touchdown catches and ranks second in receptions and yards. Fellow receiver Josh Harper has also topped 1,000 yards and has hauled in 13 scores. While the Fresno State offense has been excellent, the defense has struggled. The Bulldogs are allowing almost 30 points per game and rank just 81st in the country in points allowed.

For USC, inconsistency on both sides of the ball has plagued the team all year. The offense ranks just 69th in scoring and first-year starting QB Cody Kessler has managed just 16 touchdowns this season. If the offense does have a strength it is the running back tandem of Tre Madden and Javorius Allen. The duo has combined for more than 1,400 yards and 15 touchdowns. Defensvely, USC tightened up late in the year, and the unit actually ranks 21st in the country in points allowed and in the top 15 in sacks.

The Bulldogs Win If:

If the Bulldogs can get their passing attack on track early and turn this game into a high-scoring shootout, they should be in the driver’s seat. USC’s biggest weakness is its passing offense, and Fresno State has the best passing attack in the country. If Kessler has to try to keep pace with Carr, the Bulldogs are going to win the game. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bulldogs have to be able to slow down the Trojans’ ground game in order to prevent USC from controlling the clock and the pace of the game. Fresno State can’t afford to let this game become a battle of physical play in the trenches.

The Trojans Win If:

For the Trojans to win this game, they have to establish their ground game early and keep the pace and the score reasonable and the defense fresh. The last thing USC wants is a high-scoring shootout where Kessler has to throw the ball 40-plus times, and a consistent rushing attack will help mask the Trojans’ average passing game. Defensively, the Trojans need to be in the face of Carr all game long in order to disrupt the Bulldogs’ passing attack and to limit the big play opportunities for Fresno State. If USC is able to pound the ball on the ground on offense and get after Carr on defense, the Trojans will be in good shape.

Bottom Line:

While Fresno State has been able to put up some serious points against just about every opponent, they did manage just 24 points in a win against Utah State’s top-10 defense in the MWC title game. More importantly, the Bulldogs are allowing just about every opponent to put plenty of points on the board, as well. USC is probably the most athletic team Fresno State will have played this season, and the Trojans should have little trouble establishing their rushing attack against the porous Bulldogs’ defense. Meanwhile, USC’s suddenly stingy defense has already shown it can control a high-powered passing attack when it held Oregon State’s third-ranked passing offense to just 14 points. Carr has been sacked just 11 times all year, and he isn’t used to having to throw under duress. The Trojans have the playmakers on defense to put plenty of pressure on Carr, and they have just enough on offense to exploit a struggling Bulldogs’ defense.

Prediction: USC Trojans (-6) Cover the Spread

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