2013 College Football Bowl Picks: Purdue vs Oklahoma St Odds and Predictions – Free Heart of Dallas Bowl Picks

Heart of Dallas Bowl Odds and Picks: Purdue vs Oklahoma St Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 1/1/13: Amid a loaded slate of New Year’s Day games sits the Heart of Dallas Bowl. The Purdue Boilermakers (6-6, 3-5 Big Ten) will take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-5, 5-4 Big 12) in a matchup of teams and programs heading in different directions. While Purdue has failed to be competitive in the Big Ten for several years and just hired a new coach, Oklahoma State has quietly become one of the better programs in the Big 12. Still, a bowl win would be big for the development of both teams going forward, but the Boilermakers could have their work cut out for them, according to the oddsmakers. The Cowboys are favored in this game by 17 points.

As their 6-6 record suggests, the Boilermakers have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball throughout the year and rarely put a solid effort together on offense and defense in the same game. Purdue has used multiple quarterbacks this year, but Robert Marve will be under center in the bowl game for a passing attack that ranks outside the top 50 and offense that ranks just 61st in scoring. The rushing attack hasn’t been explosive either with Akeem Shavers leading the way with less than 800 yards. Purdue’s defense has been even worse, ranking 70th in the country in points allowed and giving up almost 30 per game to opponents.

For Oklahoma State, a high-powered offense has carried the team since Mike Gundy became coach. This year’s unit ranks fourth in the country in scoring at 44.7 points per game. It also ranks sixth in passing despite injuries forcing multiple players under center during the course of the year. Clint Chelf currently has the reins of the offense, and he has thrown for 12 touchdowns in five starts. Meanwhile, Joseph Randle provides the balance, heading the country’s 22nd-best ground game with 1,351 yards and 14 scores. On the flip side, Oklahoma State’s defense is nothing to brag about, and it is allowing almost 30 points per game this year.

The Boilermakers Win If:

If Purdue is going to win this game, it is going to have to find a way to put together a consistent effort on both sides of the ball. In particular, the Boilermakers’ defense needs to limit as many big plays as possible. It is one thing to let Oklahoma State have a 10-play drive that results in points. It is another thing entirely to let the Cowboys rip off 50-plus yards at a time, turning the game into a shootout that Purdue isn’t going to win. Offensively, the Boilermakers cannot turn the ball over and give the Cowboys’ offense any extra possessions. They also have to exploit a suspect Oklahoma State defense by controlling the clock with long drives of their own. Basically, Purdue needs to manage the pace of the game on both sides of the ball, keeping the score as close as possible. If the Boilermakers are within striking distance late in the game, they can take advantage of a bad Cowboys’ defense to steal the win.

The Cowboys Win If:

Oklahoma State’s offense averages almost 45 points per game while Purdue’s offense managed more than 40 points only once during Big Ten play. If the Cowboys’ offense comes out firing on all cylinders, Gundy’s team is going to be able to overwhelm the Boilermakers. As long as Chelf and the offense avoid turnovers, it is hard to imagine Purdue’s defense slowing them down. Defensively, Oklahoma State just needs to mix in the occasional stop, and the offense should do the rest. At the end of the day, the Cowboys can power their way to a win if their offense delivers a typical, high-scoring performance.

Bottom Line:

While it is always dangerous to bet on a team to cover a large spread in a bowl game when both sides have ample time to prepare, this matchup screams mismatch. Purdue’s offense has been inconsistent at best, and at times, it has been downright anemic. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers’ defense has been gashed for 40-plus points by the likes of Marshall, Minnesota and others. Oklahoma State’s balanced, high-scoring attack is going to light up Purdue’s shaky defense, and even though the Cowboys tend to give up their share of points, Purdue just doesn’t have the offensive weapons to keep pace in a shootout. Oklahoma State’s relentless scoring attack will power the Cowboys to a comfortable victory.

Prediction: Oklahoma State Cowboys (-17) Cover the Spread

Purdue vs Oklahoma St Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 1/1/13
Line: Oklahoma St -17
Total: Over/Under 70
Television: 12 PM EST on ESPNU

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