2013 College Football Bowl Picks: Poinsettia Bowl Odds and Predictions – Utah St vs No Illinois 12/26/2013

2013 College Football Bowl Picks: San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Odds and Predictions – Utah St vs No Illinois 12/26/2013: A pair of teams that both lost in their respective conference title games will meet when the Utah State Aggies (8-5, 7-1 MWC) take on the 23rd-ranked Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1, 8-0 MAC) in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. While Utah State fell to Fresno State in the Mountain West Conference title game, Northern Illinois fell to Bowling Green in the MAC title game, losing out on a BCS bowl berth in the process. The Huskies won’t have much time to think about what might have been before they take on the Aggies with NIU listed as a 1 ½-point favorite.

For Utah State, a stout defense has kept the Aggies formidable despite the loss of starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton midway through the year. The Aggies currently rank seventh in the country in points allowed, and they are surrendering just 17.4 points per game to opponents. On the flips side, the Aggies have been middle of the road on offense, rank 45th in points and ranking outside the top 50 in rushing and passing. Running back Joey DeMartino has been a workhorse, rushing for 12 touchdowns and more than 1,000 yards. Meanwhile, backup QB Darell Garretson has been average in relief, throwing nine touchdowns and five interceptions.

A powerful ground attack has been the calling card of the Huskies this season. Quarterback Jordan Lynch ran for 22 scores and nearly 1,900 yards for the fourth-best rushing attack in the country, and Northern Illinois also ranked in the top 10 nationally in scoring. Lynch also threw for more than 20 touchdowns en route to finishing third in the Heisman voting. While their offense was stout, the Huskies’ defense was average at best, ranking 55th in points allowed.

The Aggies Win If:

If the Aggies are going to win the game, their defense has to control the line of scrimmage. Northern Illinois makes a living on pounding the ball on the ground and wearing down opponents, but if the Aggies can force the Huskies into some long third downs, they can make Lynch more of a passer and take away the most effective part of Northern Illinois’ offense. When they have the ball, the Aggies need to be able to sustain some long drives in order to give their defense time to rest and to prevent the Huskies from controlling the pace of the game. If Utah State’s defense dictates the tempo and the offense can provide a little support, the Aggies can come out on top.

The Huskies Win If:

If the Huskies get their ground game rolling early, they are going to be in the driver’s seat in this one. While Lynch is a solid passer, Northern Illinois is at its best when it can run the ball repeatedly and wear down the opposing defense. For its part, the Northern Illinois defense needs to make sure not to give up any big plays and to force a suspect Utah State offense to have to work its way down the field. Not to mention the fact that if the Huskies stifle the Aggies’ offense early that it will go a long way to helping Lynch and company push the Utah State defense to its breaking point. If Northern Illinois’ defense holds its own and the Huskies’ running game imposes its will, Utah State is going to be in trouble.

Bottom Line:

While Northern Illinois struggled to get its offense rolling against Bowling Green’s top-10 defense in the MAC title game, the Huskies shouldn’t have to worry as much, even if Utah State’s top-10 defense makes scoring points difficult. After all, the Aggies have struggled to score against top competition, resulting in losses despite strong efforts from their defense. Don’t forget, Utah State lost 17-14 to USC and 24-17 Fresno State, and the Huskies have a top-25 defense in their own right. The Aggies’ defense may be legit, but Lynch is the best individual playmaker in this matchup for either offense, and he will make enough plays to put Northern Illinois over the top.

Prediction: Northern Illinois Huskies (-1 ½) Cover the Spread

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