Fiesta Bowl Odds and Picks: Oregon vs Kansas St Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 1/3/13: With just a couple of weeks remaining in the regular season, Oregon and KansasState were on a collision course to meet in the BCS title game. Well, the fourth-ranked Ducks (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12) and fifth-ranked Wildcats (11-1, 8-1 Big 12) will still meet in a BCS bowl, but after both teams suffered losses November 17, the two sides will have to settle for a showdown in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. Outside of the national championship game, there probably isn’t a more intriguing matchup, and the winner will cement itself as one of the year’s best teams. Making their fourth straight appearance in a BCS game the Ducks are 8 ½-point favorites in this one.
Chip Kelly’s version of the spread-option offense has turned Oregon into an offensive juggernaut. This year’s group was no exception, and the Ducks currently rank second in the country in scoring at 50.8 points per game and second in rushing. Running back Kenjon Barner leads the high-powered ground attack, and he enters the Fiesta Bowl with 21 touchdowns and more than 1,600 yards. The speedy De’Anthony Thomas is another main cog in the attack, along with quarterback Marcus Mariota. Mariota also provides plenty of balance to the offense. In addition to his 690 rushing yards, the freshman has thrown 30 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions. The Ducks haven’t been slouches on defense either. Oregon enters Thursday’s matchup giving up less than 23 points per game and leads the country with 39 forced turnovers.
For Kansas State, a power running game and solid defense carried the Wildcats to a Big 12 title. Quarterback Collin Klein is the heart and soul of the offense, and he enters the bowl game with 15 passing touchdowns and almost 2,500 yards to go along with more than 800 yards on the ground and 22 scores. With the speedy John Hubert as a counterpunch to Klein’s bulldozing style, the Wildcats own a top-35 rushing offense and the eighth-best scoring offense in the country. Meanwhile, the Kansas State ranks in the top 25 nationally, giving up just 21.1 points per game. Linebacker Arthur Brown leads a unit that has forced 31 turnovers this season. Fittingly, the Wildcats are tied with Oregon for the best turnover margin per game this season.
The Ducks Win If:
A fast start for Oregon’s offense will go a long way to setting the tone and putting the Ducks in the driver’s seat in this matchup. Kansas State’s ground game can punish opponents, but Klein isn’t a great passer. In fact, he has just three touchdown passes in the last four games. If the Ducks go on top early and build a decent lead, the Wildcats won’t be able to stick with their grinding rushing attack. More importantly, Klein will be forced to throw the ball frequently against an opportunistic Oregon secondary. An early surge from the Ducks’ high-powered offense will put the Wildcats in a hole that their offense just isn’t built to get out of.
The Wildcats Win If:
Stanford pretty much gave the blueprint for how to beat Oregon, and Kansas State has to follow the same formula. The Wildcats have to control the pace of the game from the start in order to keep their defense rested and the Ducks’ offense off the field. Klein is a punishing runner anyway, and the Kansas State offense becomes more effective the longer it is on the field. Defensively, the Wildcats need to limit as many big plays for the Ducks’ offense as possible. Klein and company can exchange scoring drives with Oregon, but the Wildcats are going to have issues if the Ducks are ripping off 50-yard explosive plays left and right. At the end of the day, Kansas State needs to control the pace of the game with its power running attack, and Klein will be able to carry the Wildcats to a win in a lower-scoring game.
Bottom Line:
When the Ducks fell to Stanford, the Cardinal offense controlled the tempo and their linebackers were able to make every tackle and limit any big runs. The Wildcats have the running game to control the pace, but unfortunately, Kansas State doesn’t have a top five rushing defense to fall back on like Stanford did. Aside from the overtime loss to the Cardinal, and Oregon won every game by double figures and won by an average of 31.7 points. The Ducks’ offense is the real deal, and while Kansas State also piled up plenty of points during the year, the Wildcats thrived on wearing down opponents with their punishing style. With the Kansas State defense unlikely to slow down the Oregon attack, Klein and company aren’t going to have the opportunity to slowly wear down the Ducks’ defense. At the end of the day, the Wildcats just don’t have a strong enough defense or enough offensive firepower to keep pace with the Ducks.
Prediction: Oregon Ducks (-8 ½) Cover the Spread
Oregon vs Kansas St Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 1/3/13
Line: Oregon -8.5
Total: Over/Under 73.5
Television: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN
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