2013 College Football Bowl Picks: Northwestern vs Mississippi St Odds and Predictions – Free Gator Bowl Picks

Gator Bowl Odds and Picks: Northwestern vs Mississippi St Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 1/1/13: The SEC and Big Ten will kick off the new year when the Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4, 4-4 SEC) take on the 20th-ranked Northwestern Wildcats (9-3, 5-3 Big Ten) in the TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl Tuesday afternoon. The Bulldogs will be looking to recapture some momentum after a 7-0 start gave way to a 1-4 finish. Meanwhile, the Wildcats will try to give their program its first bowl win since way back in 1949. The oddsmakers are leaning toward the drought coming to an end, and the Wildcats are currently two-point favorites.

Mississippi State hasn’t been overly impressive on offense this season, and the Bulldogs are currently averaging just over 30 points per game. Quarterback Tyler Russell has been efficient, throwing 22 touchdowns compared to just six picks. Meanwhile, running back LaDarius Perkins does a majority of the damage for a modest ground that ranks outside the top 80 nationally. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bulldogs are allowing just 22.4 points per game, which puts them in the top 30 in the country. Cornerback Johnathan Banks is the star of the unit and is widely considered the top cover corner in the country.

For Northwestern, a productive rushing attack has carried the offense throughout the year. Venric Mark has been the workhorse of the attack, and he has more than 1,300 yards on the year while averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Kain Colter has provided plenty of production, as well, adding more than 800 yards and 12 scores. The passing game has been nonexistent, but Northwestern is averaging 31.5 points per game on the year. Defensively, the Wildcats have been respectable, holding opponents to just 22.8 points per game.

The Bulldogs Win If:

For the Bulldogs to win the game, their defense will have to be able to control the Wildcats rushing attack.  Northwestern’s passing attack is basically nonexistent, and if Mississippi State forces the Wildcats to take to the air, the Bulldogs have an immediate advantage. Offensively, Mississippi State can help its defense by putting some points on the board early and forcing the Wildcats to abandon their run-heavy attack as soon as possible. If the Bulldogs make sure this game is decided by which offense can throw the ball better, Russell and company are going to be to outscore a grounded Northwestern team.

The Wildcats Win If:

If Northwestern is going to snap a 63-year bowl drought, they have to establish the run and can’t afford to fall behind. On the flip side, the Wildcats are going to be in the driver’s seat if they control the clock and methodically move the chains. Northwestern doesn’t have the firepower in the passing game to keep pace in an aerial shootout, but the Wildcats do have the multiple backs needed to wear out the Mississippi State defense provided they control the pace from the start of the game. If Northwestern’s rushing attack determines the pace of the game, the Wildcats are going to come away with the win.

Bottom Line:

Normally, the simple fact that Mississippi State hails from the SEC would make the Bulldogs the team to beat. However, Northwestern held its own against opponents from other conferences and even knocked of SEC foe Vanderbilt. Meanwhile, the Mississippi State defense actually had some issues stopping some of the stronger rushing attacks it faced, allowing Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M and Ole Miss to all score at least 37 points. Not to mention the fact that the Bulldogs’ offense managed just 15.3 points per game during the stretch. Mississippi State has struggled against teams that pound the ball and control the pace of the game, and Northwestern does that as well as any team in the country. It is just too tough of a matchup for the Bulldogs.

Prediction: Northwestern Wildcats (-2) Cover the Spread

Northwestern vs Mississippi St Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 1/1/13
Line: Northwestern -1.5
Total: Over/Under 54.5
Television: 12 PM EST on ESPN2

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