Orange Bowl Odds and Picks: Northern Illinois vs Florida State Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 1/1/13: While most of the BCS games are battles between two powerhouse college football programs, Tuesday’s Discover Orange Bowl is a battle of David versus Goliath. The 15th-ranked Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1, 8-0 MAC) will try to continue their Cinderella run by knocking off the 12th-ranked Florida State Seminoles (11-2, 7-1 ACC). However, the Huskies will have to do so without the man that coached them all year after Dave Doeren accepted a job at North Carolina State following the regular season. Meanwhile, the Seminoles will be looking for their first win in a BCS bowl since winning the national title with a victory in the 2000 Sugar Bowl. Florida State is definitely the big dog in this fight, and not surprisingly, the Seminoles are 13 ½-point favorites.
For Northern Illinois, a powerful rushing attack has keyed a high-scoring offense and supported a rock solid defense. The Huskies enter Tuesday’s game ranked ninth in the country in rushing and eighth in points scored at 40.8 per game. Quarterback Jordan Lynch is the centerpiece of the offense, and his numbers are staggering. He has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards to go along with 24 touchdowns and has added almost 1,800 rushing yards and 19 more scores. Meanwhile, the Huskies’ defense ranks in the top 20 in points allowed, limiting opponents to just 19.0 points per game.
Led by senior quarterback E.J. Manuel, the Seminoles rank 12th in the country in scoring. Manuel has been one of the most efficient passers in the country all season, and he is currently completing almost 68 percent of his passes. Florida State’s ground game has also been stout, ranking in the top 30 nationally. The ground attack has suffered a but since Chris Thompson was lost for the season, but a committee approach has helped the Seminoles maintain a balanced attack. Defensively, a loaded unit that features a strong pass rush and experienced corners currently ranks sixth in the nation in points allowed. Defensive end Bjoern Werner is the star of the bunch.
The Huskies Win If:
Northern Illinois’ offense revolves around Lynch, and if he has a big game, he can level the playing field by himself. In particular, the Huskies could find their way to several big plays if Lynch is able to scramble away from the Florida State pass rush and make things happen outside of the pocket. Defensively, Northern Illinois has to hold its own in the trenches. The Seminoles would be happy to line up and run the ball all game, and the Huskies can’t allow that to happen if they want to pull off the upset. In the end, protecting Lynch and finding ways to get him in space are the keys for Northern Illinois. If the Huskies can make sure this game comes down to which QB can make more big plays, Lynch can power Northern Illinois to a program-defining victory.
The Seminoles Win If:
Florida State’s defense terrorized quarterbacks all season, and Werner and company make life miserable for Lynch this game could get ugly. The Seminoles’ corners can help the cause by winning one-on-one battles on the outside and allowing the safeties to cheat up and help stuff the Northern Illinois ground game. On the offensive side of the ball, Florida State needs to maintain a healthy balance, keeping the Huskies’ defense guessing. Both Manuel and the ground game can put points on the board for Florida State, and if Northern Illinois can’t focus on stopping one or the other, the Seminoles are going to gain a major edge. At the end of the day, Florida State wins this game if its defense locks down Lynch and its offense delivers steady, consistent drives throughout the game.
Bottom Line:
Since falling to Iowa by a single point in the season opener, Northern Illinois has reeled off 12 straight wins. Meanwhile, Florida State has been up and down all year, giving up leads in losses to North Carolina State and Florida and squeaking out wins against mediocre Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech teams. To put it bluntly, the Seminoles have a nasty habit of playing down to their competition and of getting complacent when they get an early lead. Both patterns are disastrous heading into a BCS game versus a team that everyone expects Florida State to destroy. Based purely on size and athleticism, the Seminoles should probably do just that. However, a very motivated Northern Illinois team is going to be able to make Florida State pay for its lack of focus. The Huskies may not be able to win the game when all is said and done, but they will be able to cover a sizeable spread against a Seminoles’ group that hasn’t cared enough to put away multiple teams throughout the year.
Prediction: Northern Illinois Huskies (+13 ½) Cover the Spread
No Illinois vs Florida State Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 1/1/13
Line: Florida State -14.5
Total: Over/Under 58.5
Television: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN
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