Sugar Bowl Odds and Picks: Louisville vs Florida Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 1/2/13: The Big East has been the butt of many jokes in the college football world the past few years as its automatic-qualifying status to BCS game has been called into question. On the flip side, the SEC is the unquestioned top conference in the country. When the 21st-ranked Louisville Cardinals (10-2, 5-2 Big East) take the field against the third-ranked Florida Gators (11-1, 7-1 SEC) Wednesday in the Allstate Sugar Bowl, the two conferences will go head to head. For Florida, a win would be a feather in the cap on an incredible bounce back season for the program. Meanwhile, a Cardinals’ victory would go a long way to bringing respect to the program and to the Big East. The Gators are favored in this matchup, and they are giving 14 points.
Louisville has failed to get a consistent ground game going all year, but the offense is averaging 31.0 points per game thanks to the stellar play of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The sophomore has thrown for 25 touchdowns and more than 3,400 yards, and the Cardinals rank 23-rd in the country in passing. Bridgewater spreads the wealth in Louisville’s pass-first system, but receiver DeVante David is his top big play target. The Cardinals’ defense has provided reliable support for most of the year, holding opponents to less than 24 points per game. In terms of scoring defense, the Cardinals rank in the top 40.
A downright nasty defense has carried the Gators this season. Florida currently ranks third in the country in points allowed, giving up just 12.9 points per game. The unit also ranks fifth in yards allowed, fifth in rush defense and eighth in the country with 19 interceptions. Overall, Florida has held opponents to 20 points or less in 11 of its 12 games this season. Of course, the Gators have needed their stingy defense to make up for an offense that ranks just 76th in points per game. Mike Gillislee is the workhorse of a power running game that ranks in the top 35 nationally, but Florida’s passing attack is one of the worst in the country. Quarterback Jake Driskel has thrown for just 11 touchdowns this year and is much more of a weapon as a scrambler than a pocket passer.
The Cardinals Win If:
If Louisville is going to pull the upset, it is going to take a strong game from Bridgewater and an even stronger performance from the Cardinals’ rush defense. The Gators may be tough in the trenches on both sides of the ball, but they just don’t throw the ball very effectively. If Louisville can stifle the Florida ground game in the early going and make Driskel throw the ball, it will go a long way to leveling the playing field. Bridgewater is the best QB in this matchup, and he can outplay Driskel. Basically, the Cardinals can win the game if the outcome is decided by which quarterback is able to make the most plays.
The Gators Win If:
Florida has been one of the toughest teams at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball all season, and if they continue to dominate at the point of attack against Louisville, the Gators are going to be tough to stop. In particular, Florida can bring Louisville’s offense to a crawl by getting pressure on Bridgewater and disrupting the Cardinals’ passing attack. Offensively, the Gators need to establish the ground game early and slowly wear down the Cardinals’ defense. If Florida’s defense can neutralize Bridgewater, the offense will be able to pound away at the Louisville defense until its breaks.
Bottom Line:
Florida might be the most physical team in the country, and the Gators have a big edge in terms of speed, strength and athleticism in this matchup. However, Florida has enjoyed a similar edge against a majority of its opponents and hasn’t blown many of them out. In fact, the Gators beat just four teams by more than 14 points this season, and one of those teams was Jacksonville State. Meanwhile, Bowling Green lost to the Gators by only 13 points and Louisiana-Lafayette lost by only seven points. Plain and simple, Florida’s offensive philosophy just doesn’t lend itself to huge point totals. The Gators are happy to run the ball, control field position and rely on their stifling defense to secure wins. That same formula should deliver Florida a victory in the Sugar Bowl, but the scoreboard won’t reflect just how much of a talent gap exists between these two teams.
Prediction: Louisville Cardinals (+14) Cover the Spread
Louisville vs Florida State Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 1/2/13
Line: Florida -14
Total: Over/Under 48
Television: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN
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