2013 College Football Bowl Picks: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Odds and Predictions – Buffalo vs San Diego State 12/21/2013

2013 College Football Bowl Picks: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Odds and Predictions – Buffalo vs San Diego State 12/21/2013: A battle of late-bloomers is on tap for this year’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Buffalo Bulls (8-4, 6-2 MAC) will face the San Diego State Aztecs (7-5, 6-2 MWC), and while both teams started slow and struggled in out-of-conference play, both rallied to post respectable numbers in conference. In fact, the Bulls won eight of their last nine games, and the Aztecs won seven of their last nine games. In a matchup between two teams playing their best late in the year, the Bulls are slim 1 ½-point favorites.

For the Bulls, a middle-of-the-road offense and above-average defense have fueled the solid season. Quarterback Joe Licata has been efficient, throwing 21 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. Meanwhile, running back Branden Oliver has been a workhorse and has 15 scores and more than 1,400 yards thus far. Overall, Buffalo’s offense ranks 58th in the country in points per game. Defensively, the Bulls rank 27th in the country in points allowed, and they have held six of their last nine opponents to 14 points or less.

The Aztecs have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball for most of the year, but the team’s offense does have some weapons. Running backs Adam Muema and Donnel Pumphrey have combined for almost 1,800 yards and 20 scores this year, and receiver Ezell Ruffin has already topped 1,000 yards. That being said, San Diego State ranks 71st in the country in scoring, and the Aztecs are actually allowing more points than they are scoring thanks to a defense that ranks 97th in points allowed.

The Bulls Win If:

For the Bulls to win the game, they need to get their ground game rolling early. Oliver is their best offensive weapon, and if he is able to move the ball on long, sustained drives, it is going to put Buffalo in great shape. Not only will a steady running game wear down the suspect San Diego State defense, but it will keep the stingy Buffalo defense rested and on top of its game. The formula for success is simple, but establishing a steady ground game on offense and playing solid defense is what the Bulls need to do to win the game.

The Aztecs Win If:

For a team plagued by inconsistencies like San Diego State, playing mistake-free football on both sides of the ball is a must. On offense, a solid performance from their running back tandem of Muema and Pumphrey has to be on top of its game. Defensively, the Aztecs have to at least make the Bulls work for their points rather than allowing big plays. Plain and simple, San Diego State needs the team that has played well late in the year to show up rather than the team that was crushed early in the year.

Bottom Line:

Although the Bills appear to be the better team on paper, the Aztecs have had a knack for delivering their best performances on the biggest stages. They lost to Oregon State by just four points, holding the high-powered Beavers’ offense to 34 points. Meanwhile, they defeated Boise State and took eventual Mountain West Conference champion Fresno State to overtime before losing 35-28. As inconsistent as San Diego State has been all year, it is hard to deny the Aztecs’ ability to rise to the occasion. It doesn’t get much bigger than a bowl game for a program like San Diego State, and while Buffalo has the better defense, a focused effort from the Aztecs should be enough to deliver a victory.

Prediction: San Diego State Aztecs (+1 ½) Cover the Spread

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