2013 College Football Bowl Picks: Belk Bowl Odds and Predictions – Cincinnati vs North Carolina 12/28/2013

2013 College Football Bowl Picks: Belk Bowl Odds and Predictions – Cincinnati vs North Carolina 12/28/2013: Two teams that rallied to salvage their seasons after slow starts will meet Saturday when the Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3, 6-2 AAC) face the North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6, 4-4 ACC) in the Belk Bowl. Midseason quarterback changes turned things around for both sides, and while Cincinnati won six straight before losing their season finale, the Tar Heels reeled off five straight before falling in their final game of the year. Both sides will try to cap trying seasons on a high note, and the Tar Heels are favored by 2 ½-points.

After a slow start on offense, the Bearcats developed a potent passing attack once Brendon Kay became the starter. He threw for more than 3,100 yards and 22 scores for a passing game that ranked in the top 15 nationally. Anthony McClung has been his main target, and he has more than 900 receiving yards on the year. On the flip side, Cincinnati’s ground game has been below average, but the Bearcats’ defense ranks 12th in the country in points allowed.

Following a 1-5 starts, the Tar Heels righted the ship in part because of the play of dual-threat QB Marquise Williams. After becoming the full-time starter, he accounted for 20 total touchdowns and actually led the team in rushing. Tight end Eric Ebron is his top target, and he leads the team with 895 yards. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels finished the regular season ranked in the top 25 in passing and 48th in scoring. Defensively, North Carolina ranks just outside the top 50, allowing 25.1 points per game.

The Bearcats Win If:

For the Bearcats to win the game, their offensive line needs to control the line of scrimmage. Cincinnati needs to throw the ball in order to score points, and that isn’t going to happen if Kay is running for his life. Perhaps more importantly, a big game from Kay and the offense will make life easier for the Bearcats’ defense. If Cincinnati can jump out to an early lead, Williams will have to become more of a pocket passer to try to help North Carolina keep pace. By making North Carolina’s offense a big more predictable, Cincinnati’s stingy defense should be able to control the action.

The Tar Heels Win If:

If the Tar Heels are going to win the game, they need to get pressure consistent pressure on Kay in order to disrupt Cincinnati’s passing attack. If North Carolina forces the Bearcats to try to run the ball to score points, the Tar Heels should have little trouble slowing down Cincinnati’s attack. On offense, North Carolina needs a big game from Williams. Plain and simple, he is the team’s best playmaker. If he is able to keep the Bearcats’ defense guessing with his dual-threat ability, the Tar Heels should put enough points on the board to win.

Bottom Line:

On one hand, Williams gives North Carolina the best individual weapon in a battle between two offenses that improved dramatically as the year went on. On the flip side, Cincinnati’s defense is probably the best unit that either side brings to the table. After all, the Bearcats allowed opponents to score more than six points only twice, and one of those instances was a 31-24 loss to Teddy Bridgewater and Louisville. Cincinnati gave the highly-touted QB all he could handle in that matchup, and the Bearcats should have little trouble doing the same to a talented but inexperienced Williams. Both teams will have their moments on offense, but Cincinnati’s ability to also get consistent stops with its defense will tip the scales in the Bearcats’ favor.

Prediction: Cincinnati Bearcats (+2 ½) Cover the Spread

NSAwins.com is America’s premier sports betting website for 2013 College Football Expert Picks and College Football Betting Odds and Lines.