2013 College Football Bowl Picks: Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl Odds and Predictions – East Carolina vs Ohio 12/23/2013

2013 College Football Bowl Picks: Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl Odds and Predictions – East Carolina vs Ohio 12/23/2013: A pair of smaller conference teams will meet in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl when the East Carolina Pirates (9-3, 6-2 C-USA) face the Ohio Bobcats (7-5, 4-4 MAC). The Pirates finished second in the East Division of Conference USA while the Bobcats finished third in the East Division in the MAC, and the two sides are heading in different directions entering their bowl matchup. East Carolina closed the regular season with five wins in its final six games while Ohio dropped three of its final four contests. The Pirates definitely have momentum on their side, and they are 14-point favorites in this matchup.

The Pirates own one of the more explosive offenses in the country. Quarterback Shane Carden has thrown 32 touchdowns for the 10th-best passing attack in the nation, and overall, East Carolina ranks 11th in scoring at 40.4 points per game. Carden’s main target is receiver Justin Harden, who has eight touchdowns and more than 1,200 yards this season. While the Pirates’ passing game is potent, they rank outside the top 100 nationally in rushing. On the defensive side of the ball, they have been a middle-of-the-road team, allowing 25.2 points per game and ranking outside the top 50 in points allowed.

For Ohio, mediocrity has been the theme all season. Offensively, the Bobcats rank 58th in passing, 96th in rushing and 72nd in points per game. Ohio does have an experienced leader under center in Tyler Tettleton, but his numbers have been average throughout the year. Defensively, Ohio hasn’t been much stronger, ranking 66th nationally.

The Pirates Win If:

If the Pirates’ offense is clicking out of the gate, they are going to be in the driver’s seat in this game. The Bobcats have enough trouble scoring consistently as it is, and if East Carolina can put them in an early hole and force them to become one dimensional, the Bobcats will have serious issues scoring points. At the end of the day, East Carolina has a high-powered offense at its disposal, and if they can create an up-tempo game, the chances of the offensively-challenged Bobcats keeping pace in a shootout are slim.

The Bobcats Win If:

For the Bobcats to win the game, they need a solid performance from their offense. In particular, Tettleton and company need to string together long, sustained drives that slow the pace of the game and keep East Carolina’s offense off the field as much as possible. Defensively, Ohio needs to be able to get pressure on Carden and at least make the Pirates work their way down the field rather than allowing big play after big play. The Bobcats may not have the offensive firepower of the Pirates, but if they can control the clock and make this a lower-scoring game, Tettleton will have a chance to make enough plays to deliver a win.

Bottom Line:

At the end of the day, this game just looks like a mismatch no matter how you slice it. After all, East Carolina’s offense is legit, and they have already lit up ACC opponents North Carolina and North Carolina State in easy victories over both teams. Meanwhile, Ohio has been inconsistent all year, and the Bobcats might be playing their worst football heading into the bowl game. Keep in mind that in their three losses in November, the Bobcats were outscored 123-16. Ohio just doesn’t have the defense to contain Carden and company, and the Bobcats certainly don’t have the offense to outscore them in a shootout.

Prediction: East Carolina Pirates (-14) Cover the Spread

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