BCS National Championship Odds and Picks: Notre Dame vs Alabama Predictions – Free BCS Championship Game Picks 1/7/13: Without question, Monday’s Discover BCS National Championship between the top-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) and second-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1, 7-1 SEC) will be the most tradition-rich matchup in the BCS era. Notre Dame is arguably the most storied program in college football history, and a surprising turnaround has the Fighting Irish on the verge of their ninth national title. Meanwhile, the defending champion Crimson Tide are looking for their third title in four years and 10th overall as Alabama attempts to add to its own rich history of success. Both programs are polarizing as all great teams and players seem to be. Nobody just sort of likes Notre Dame or sort of likes Alabama. Both teams are beloved by their fan bases and hated by just about everyone else. In either case, this game is a dream matchup for college football fans everywhere. The Fighting Irish may be No. 1 in the country coming into the game, but the defending champs are 9 ½-point favorites.
For Notre Dame, the impressive return to prominence was fueled by Heisman runner-up Manti Te’o and a powerful defense. The senior linebacker had more than 100 tackles and seven interceptions for a defense that leads the country in scoring defense, allowing just 10.3 points per game. The unit is also fifth in yards allowed and has surrendered just two rushing touchdowns all season. Notre Dame has held 11 of its 12 opponents to 17 points or less this year, and the one exception came when the game went to triple-overtime. On the flip side, the Fighting Irish don’t have an explosive offense, ranking just 76th in the country in scoring at 26.8 points per game. A power running game is Notre Dame’s most reliable offensive weapon, and the duo of Cierre Wood and Theo Riddick combined for more than 1,600 yards this season. Meanwhile, quarterback Everett Golson brings a scrambling ability to the table and has made strides as a passer. Golson has just 11 touchdown passes this season, but seven have come in the last four games.
After winning a championship mainly with its defense last year, Alabama turned into an offensive juggernaut as well this season. Behind the country’s best offensive line, the Crimson Tide own the 19th-best rushing attack and 13th-best scoring offense at 38.5 points per game. Running backs Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon have topped 1,000 yards and are averaging more than six yards per carry. Meanwhile, quarterback A.J. McCarron has blossomed into one of the nation’s most efficient passers. He has 26 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions this year and owns the second-best QB rating in the country. Of course, the Crimson Tide defense hasn’t exactly taken a back seat. Alabama ranks second in scoring defense, allowing just 10.7 points per game. The unit also leads the country in total yards allowed, ranks second in rushing defense and is allowing the fewest yards per carry of any team.
The Fighting Irish Win If:
Alabama has been able to line up and run the ball down the throat of every team it has played. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has been able to stop just about every rushing attack it has faced. If the Fighting Irish are able to slow Lacy and Yeldon, an upset becomes a real possibility. In particular, Notre Dame needs to continue its stellar red zone defense against the run. As I mentioned earlier, the Fighting Irish have allowed just two rushing scores all year, and if they prevent Alabama from adding to that total, they are going to be in great shape. Overall, Notre Dame needs to force McCarron to beat them. Yes, he has had a strong season, but in the one game Alabama needed him to lead a comeback, his final play was an interception in the end zone against Texas A&M.
Offensively, Golson has to be able to make plays with his arm. Alabama’s defense struggled to contain Heisman winner Johnny Manziel, but only because he proved to be a threat both running and passing. Keep in mind that the Crimson Tide stifled Denard Robinson and the Michigan offense because Robinson couldn’t consistently make throws down the field. If Golson can make Alabama honor both the run and the pass and the defense stops the Crimson Tide from running wild, the Fighting Irish have a chance to put enough points on the board to win the game.
The Crimson Tide Win If:
Notre Dame’s front seven on defense is great, but Alabama’s offensive line is stout, as well. If the Crimson Tide win the war in the trenches and are able to run over the Fighting Irish, this game is going to get ugly. Alabama’s running game is relentless once it gets rolling, and McCarron is too good when he is able to use play action and act as the counterpunch to the ground game rather than the main offensive weapon. Plain and simple, a strong showing from Alabama’s offensive line and the Lacy-Yeldon combination will result in a national title for the Crimson Tide.
Defensively, Alabama will have to make sure Golson remains a pocket passer. When the Notre Dame QB is scrambling around outside of the pocket, he is able to extend plays and open up big play opportunities. The Crimson Tide can eliminate that threat by getting pressure up the middle and remaining disciplined on the edges in order to contain Golson. The Fighting Irish offense really isn’t explosive, but Golson is the one player that can make explosive plays. If the Crimson Tide keep him in check, Notre Dame won’t be able to put enough points on the board to take down Alabama.
Bottom Line:
I understand that Alabama has been the more impressive team to the eye this year and that the Crimson Tide have the better offense and more experience in this type of atmosphere. However, sometimes it is just meant to be for a team. Think about the St. Louis Cardinals and Connecticut Huskies in 2011, the Los Angeles Kings last year, or even the Ohio State Buckeyes in 2002 if you want a college football example. All these teams had flaws and weaknesses, but they all found a way to win a championship despite seemingly insurmountable circumstances. Notre Dame could have easily lost to Purdue, Michigan or BYU and probably should have lost to Stanford and Pittsburgh if the officiating had been better. Still, the Fighting Irish are undefeated and playing for a national title. Granted, destiny alone has never won a team a championship, but destiny along with a stifling defense and an improving QB that makes the type of unpredictable plays that tends to give Alabama’s defense trouble just might. Ultimately, the Fighting Irish may not be able to pull off the upset, but this game is going to be a hard-hitting, physical nail biter.
Prediction: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+9 ½) Cover the Spread
Notre Dame vs Alabama Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 1/7/13
Line: Alabama -9.5
Total: Over/Under 40.5
Television: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN
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