2012 SEC Championship Odds and Picks: Alabama vs Georgia Predictions – Free College Football Picks

2012 SEC Championship Odds and Picks: Alabama vs Georgia Predictions – Free College Football Picks 12/1/12: The SEC has been the best conference in college football for the better part of a decade, and fittingly, the winner between the second-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1, 7-1 SEC) and third-ranked Georgia Bulldogs (11-1, 7-1 SEC) in Saturday’s SEC title game will go on to play top-ranked Notre Dame in the BCS championship game. The game is without question the most important of all the conference title games, and while the winner will have a shot at a national title, the loser won’t even make a BCS bowl. Thanks to a rule that forbids three teams from the same conference from playing in BCS games, the loser between Alabama and Georgia will likely be passed by fourth-ranked Florida in the BCS standings, even though both the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs finished ahead of the Gators in the SEC. Needless to say, the stakes couldn’t be higher. This will be a season-defining game for both programs, and the defending national champion Crimson Tide are 7 ½-point favorites.

Alabama’s recipe for success has been a nasty defense and a powerful running game. The Crimson Tide have the top-ranked scoring defense in the country, allowing just 9.3 points per game and holding 11 of their 12 opponents to 17 points or less. Meanwhile, the country’s most-talented offensive line has paved the way a top-25 rushing attack led by running backs Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon. The duo has combined for more than 1,800 yards and 24 scores, and both players are averaging more than six yards per carry. Quarterback A.J. McCarron has provided plenty of balance for an offense that ranks 15th in the country on scoring, throwing for 25 touchdowns compared to just two interceptions. Not surprisingly, Alabama is one of the 10 best teams in the country in terms of turnover differential. However, it is worth noting that the Crimson Tide will not have the services of their most experienced receiver Kenny Bell after he suffered a broken leg last weekend.

Georgia has plenty of talent and balance on both sides of the ball, as well. Quarterback Aaron Murray leads the 17th-ranked scoring offense, and he has 30 touchdowns to go along with the top quarterback rating in the country. The Bulldogs also have a two-headed monster at running back of their own in Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall. Like their Alabama counterparts, the duo has combined for more than 1,800 yards, and both are averaging more than six yards per carry. Meanwhile, a star-studded defense led by linebacker Jarvis Jones, nose tackle Jarvis Jones and safety Bacarri Rambo has been improving throughout the year. Georgia owns the 16th-ranked scoring defense in the country and has held five straight opponents to 14 points or less.

The Crimson Tide Win If:

Alabama has the best offensive line in the country, and if the Crimson Tide are able to control the line of scrimmage and the pace of the game with their power running game, it is going to set them up for success. Murray and the Bulldogs have a ton of offensive firepower, but Georgia can’t score if their offense is on the sideline. Not to mention the fact that Alabama’s top-ranked defense is only going to play better if it gets plenty of time to rest on the sidelines. Not to mention the fact that with McCarron missing his most experienced target, the last thing Alabama wants is to get into a high-scoring shootout with the top-ranked passer in the country. At the end of the day, the Crimson Tide will win this game if their offensive line is too physically and overpowering for the Bulldogs to handle. If Lacy and Yeldon are finding running lanes early and often, Alabama is going to be able to wear Georgia’s defense and keep Murray and company in check.

The Bulldogs Win If:

While establishing their ground game on offense will go a long way to helping the Bulldogs knock off Alabama, this game really comes to the play of Murray. He is 0-3 against Georgia’s biggest division rival South Carolina and is 0-3 in the postseason. He has consistently come up small on big stages, and he has to change that if the Bulldogs are going to win the SEC title game. His play becomes even more important when you consider that the one vulnerable area of Alabama’s defense has been its secondary. Obviously, it is also important for Jones and the Georgia defense to keep Alabama from running over them with its power rushing attack, but if Murray can put points on the board and force the Crimson Tide to play from behind, the problem will take care of itself. If Murray has a big game, Georgia has the talent on both sides of the ball to win this game.

Bottom Line:

When Georgia played Florida earlier in the year, Murray was on his way to other flop in a big game, throwing three first-half interceptions. However, his defense bailed him out, the Bulldogs won the game, and Murray got his first win against a team ranked in the top 20. Since that victory, Murray has played like a man with a huge weight lifted off his shoulders. He has 14 touchdowns and no interceptions since the meeting with Gators, and his hot streak coincides with the stellar run by the Georgia defense. In other words, the Bulldogs are playing their best on both sides of the ball heading into the SEC title game. Meanwhile, Alabama enters the game with a depleted receiving corps and with a secondary that was torched by a red-shirt freshman in Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel. Granted, Alabama is still more than capable of winning this game on the strength of its power running game, but as hot as Georgia is, this game isn’t going to be decided until the closing minutes.

Prediction: Georgia Bulldogs (+7 ½) Cover the Spread

Alabama vs Georgia Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Alabama -7.5
Total: Over/Under 51
Television: 4 PM EST on CBS

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