2012 Poinsettia Bowl Odds and Picks: BYU vs San Diego St Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks

2012 College Bowl Odds and Picks: BYU vs San Diego St Predictions – Free Poinsettia Bowl Picks 12/20/12: Two teams that may be conference rivals in the near future will go head to head in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl when the BYU Cougars (7-5) meet the San Diego State Aztecs (9-3, 7-1 MWC). Rumor has it that BYU is looking to rejoin the Mountain West after becoming independent a few years ago. Meanwhile, the Aztecs are set to move to the Big East next year but may remain in the MWC now that the Big East conference champion will no longer earn an automatic bid to a BCS bowl. What ultimately happens remains to be seen, but in the meantime, San Diego State will be a 2 ½-point underdog as it tries to knock of BYU and notch a 10-win season.

For the Cougars, defense has been their key to success all year. BYU has the fifth-best scoring defense in the country, allowing less than 15 points per game. In fact, the Cougars have held 10 of their 12 opponents thus far to 17 points or less. The BYU offense has been a different story. The Cougars rank outside the top 50 in both rushing and passing and rank 66th in points scored. Junior receiver Cody Hoffman accounted for almost half of BYU’s production in the passing game while freshman Jamaal Williams led the modest rushing attack. Meanwhile, it is unclear who will start at quarterback for the Cougars. Riley Nelson started most of the season but has thrown just 13 touchdowns compared to 12 interceptions. Nelson was also injured prior to BYU’s regular season finale, and backup James Lark responded by throwing for nearly 400 yards and six scores in the start. There could be a QB-by-committee approach in the bowl game.

San Diego on the other hand brings a solid offensive attack into the matchup. The Aztecs have the 16th-ranked rushing attack in the country and rank 28-th in points scored at more than 35 per game. Backs Adam Muema and Walter Kazee have led the way, combining for almost 2,200 yards to go along with 24 touchdowns. Meanwhile, sophomore QB Adam Dingwell has recently taken over a rarely-used passing attack that ranks 106th in the country, throwing eight touchdowns and four picks in five starts. Defensively, San Diego State has been mediocre at times and currently ranks outside the top 40 in points allowed. The Aztecs have allowed four opponents to score at least 38 points this year, but only one opponent has reach that total during the team’s seven-game winning streak.

The Cougars Win If:

Although the BYU offense is nothing special, the defense is more than capable of winning a game without a ton of help. Against the Aztecs, shutting down Muema and the ground will be the top priority. If the Cougars do control the San Diego State running attack, the Aztecs are going to struggle to score. Meanwhile, the BYU offense needs to avoid turnovers and three and outs in order to give its defense the best chance to control the game. If the game becomes a low-scoring, defensive-oriented affair, the Cougars can come away with the win.

The Aztecs Win If:

Establishing the ground game early is going to be crucial for San Diego State. The Aztecs have two quality backs to hand the ball to, and if they can control the game on the ground, they are going to be in great shape. San Diego State doesn’t want to play from behind, and BYU doesn’t want to have to score a lot of points to win. The Aztecs can take care of both problems by getting their rushing attack rolling early and putting points on the board. If San Diego State’s rushing attack is the story of this game, the Aztecs will eventually wear down the Cougars’ defense and win the game.

Bottom Line:

It is easy to look at BYU’s record and assume the Cougars are in trouble against a San Diego State team riding a seven-game winning streak.  However, four of BYU’s losses have come by six points or less, and three of those losses were to ranked teams. More importantly, the Cougars’ defense had just one bad game all season, and they held Notre Dame’s powerful rushing offense in check in a narrow 17-14 loss in South Bend. The Aztecs bring a similar, run-heavy offense into this matchup, and the Cougars are more than capable of stopping a one-dimensional attack. Given the state of BYU’s own offense, this game could end up fairly ugly, but ugly is the type of game the Cougars can win. Led by its defense, BYU will slow the San Diego State’s ground game and emerge with the win.

Prediction: BYU Cougars (-2 ½) Cover the Spread

BYU vs San Diego St Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 12/20/12
Line: BYu -2.5
Total: Over/Under 49
Television: 8 PM EST on ESPN

Stop by NSAwins.com daily throughout the NCAA Football season for daily Hesiman Trophy Vegas Odds and College Football Odds plus daily updated BCS National Championship Betting Odds and 2012 College Bowl Odds.