2012 PAC 12 Championship Odds and Picks: UCLA @ Stanford Predictions – Free College Football Picks

2012 PAC 12 Championship Odds and Picks: UCLA @ Stanford Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/30/12: For the second time in six days, the 16th-ranked UCLA Bruins (9-3, 6-3 Pac-12) will meet the eighth-ranked Stanford Cardinal (10-2, 8-1 Pac-12). This time around, the Pac-12 title is at stake as well as a trip to the Rose Bowl. Stanford clobbered UCLA 35-17 last Saturday, but while the Bruins already had the South Division wrapped up, the Cardinal needed the win just to clinch the Pac-12 North and a spot in the conference championship game. Both teams have plenty to play for in Friday night’s rematch. Fresh off snapping UCLA’s five-game winning streak, Stanford is an 8 ½-point favorite as it tires to extend its own winning streak to seven games and punch a ticket to Pasadena.

For UCLA, the program’s resurgence has been keyed by a strong, balanced offense. Quarterback Brett Hundley threw for more than 3,000 yards and 26 scores while running back Johnathan Franklin ran for more than 1,500 yards and 11 scores. Together, the duo helped the Bruins rank in the top 35 in both rushing and passing and rank in the top 25 in the country in scoring. UCLA’s defense on the other hand has been suspect, especially lately. The Bruins have allowed four of their last five opponents to score at least 35 points, including three straight.

Meanwhile, Stanford’s strength is its stifling defense. Led by a stellar group of linebackers, the Cardinal own the top-ranked rush defense in the country and the 11th-best scoring defense. Stanford also leads the country in sacks while safety Ed Reynolds has five interceptions and has returned three for scores. The Cardinal are allowing less than 17 points per game on the season and have allowed just two opponents all year to top the 17-point mark. Stanford supports it defense with a clock-controlling, power running game. Stepfan Taylor leads the ground attack and has rushed for 11 scores and more than 1,300 yards. The quarterback situation has been a mess as the Cardinal attempt to replace Andrew Luck, but freshman Kevin Hogan has started the last three games and has been efficient while knocking off ranked teams in all three starts.

The Bruins Win If:

If the Bruins are going to avenge their loss to Stanford, they have to find a way to get tougher in the trenches. The normally powerful UCLA ground game managed just 2.9 yards per carry, and Hundley was sacked seven times. Meanwhile, Taylor ran over the Bruins’ defense, piling up 142 yards and two scores on just 20 carries. UCLA’s defense has to slow down the Stanford ground game and make Hogan more than a game manager. Meanwhile, the Bruins’ running game has to provide enough balance to keep Hundley out of obvious passing situations. When they are moving the ball on the ground and through the air, the Bruins are actually a force on the offensive side of the ball. If UCLA’s offensive and defensive lines can at least close the gap in the trenches, the Bruins could start to pile up some points and knock off a Stanford team that doesn’t have a high-powered scoring attack.

The Cardinal Win If:

If Stanford can even come close to replicating its performance from last Saturday, the Cardinal are going to roll to a Pac-12 title. There is probably no team that helps its offense with its defense and vice versa. If Chase Thomas and his fellow linebackers are forcing three and outs, Taylor and the ground game are going to wear out a UCLA defense that won’t get a long of time to rest. Meanwhile, sustained drives on the part of the Stanford offense will keep an already elite defense well rested. In short, the Cardinal can control the game by controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. If they play like the physical team they have been all year, the Cardinal will win this game.

Bottom Line:

There is no question that UCLA played like a team that didn’t have anything to play for in its loss to Stanford last weekend. However, Stanford’s incredible edge in the trenches isn’t going away whether the Bruins are focused or not. The Cardinal have the best group of linebackers in the country, and they anchor the country’s best run defense. The fact that Stanford shut down Franklin was no fluke. Stanford’s seven sacks on Hundley were no fluke either. The Cardinal lead the country in that category, as well, entering the game with 53.0 sacks. Stanford is one of the most physical teams on both sides of the ball in the country, and the Cardinal defense has already shut down USC, Oregon and UCLA. Stanford’s defense will shut down the Bruins once again while Taylor and the ground game will power the Cardinal to a Pac-12 title.

Prediction: Stanford Cardinal (-8 ½) Cover the Spread

UCLA @ Stanford Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Stanford -9.5
Total: Over/Under 47.5
Television: 8 PM EST on FOX

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